TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,137
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,137 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f3c…ca16backed No1c6,569$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3514934.2%51 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3500…f012backed Yes37c1,202$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.91825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c669.35$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.698,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes33c510.63$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.648,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No63c492.91$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.092,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes48c382.65$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.685,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes37c316.93$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.44,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes35c175.92$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.541,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No63c160$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.877851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No64c154.27$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.414,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes33c151.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No18c142.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.672,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes37c134$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4286949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No34c129.43$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes33c122.55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.551,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes37c120.82$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.821,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c114.06$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.129,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c111.41$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes78c106.82$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.471,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes35c92.11$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.876552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No62c89$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.182,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No47c88.85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.544,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes35c80$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5231936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No64c79.68$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0977555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes38c79.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9594552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes38c79.37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.373,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No67c77.05$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3840352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No65c71.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.642,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No66c68.48$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe37a…844dbacked No74c64.95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3712876.6%98 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No62c62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.245,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No59c60.49$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6980560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1442151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed No55c55.35$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5829345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes67c55.12$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.374362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.555954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed No67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.528455.6%158 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes26c49.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.632,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes33c46.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.321,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes37c46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9854253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55bc…52d8backed Yes45c45.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.286839.7%27 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes37c45.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.771,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes45c43.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.620144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes33c41.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8814546.9%68 W · 77 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No61c41.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2b19…bae5backed No67c40.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.281560%9 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes34c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.490555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes36c36.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0759144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No65c34.88$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7616859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes49c34.64$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.87835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No46c34.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7117858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74fa…7baabacked No65c32.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.291172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+49.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked No37c32.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1296015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No63c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1694066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefb7…dcfdbacked No65c31.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.21338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.096,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No66c30.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.862,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.32,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9128456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9374…3770backed No52c29.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.52825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-46.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No64c29.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5764859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No66c25.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7544366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No47c23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.812,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No60c22.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.242,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No70c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x463a…af96backed Yes59c20.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4612052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4b…b048backed Yes60c18.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No67c15.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.361,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb23…10edbacked No69c15.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.361656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.