Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x467bc461d98cfb0710c5763592240209ffdc628d92397d915c4c3081fabaeaee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 1c | 6,569$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…f012backed Yes | 37c | 1,202$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 669.35$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 510.63$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 492.91$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 382.65$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 316.93$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 175.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.54 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 160$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 154.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 151.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 142.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 37c | 134$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 129.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 122.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 120.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 114.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 111.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 78c | 106.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 35c | 92.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 88.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 64c | 79.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 38c | 79.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 79.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 77.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 71.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 68.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 74c | 64.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 59c | 60.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 55c | 55.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 67c | 55.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 49.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 33c | 46.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 37c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 45c | 45.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 37c | 45.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 45c | 43.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 33c | 41.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 41.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b19…bae5backed No | 67c | 40.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 36c | 36.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 65c | 34.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 49c | 34.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 46c | 34.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…7baabacked No | 65c | 32.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 37c | 32.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…dcfdbacked No | 65c | 31.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 30.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9374…3770backed No | 52c | 29.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 64c | 29.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 66c | 25.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 22.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 59c | 20.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4b…b048backed Yes | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 15.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…10edbacked No | 69c | 15.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.