TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Yandex, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$216,987
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$235,076

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,987 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29f9…e310backed Team Spirit49c33,827$16,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,733.7412256.6%69 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Spirit7c19,499$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.1780443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Yandex52c15,287$7,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,331.7353451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Spirit59c15,000$8,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,875.6886659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Yandex51c10,624$5,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,155.3913155%72 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex43c10,316$4,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,856.61,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Team Spirit55c9,549$5,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,258.7812348%59 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Spirit50c9,146$4,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,537.8989749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefee…d2b3backed Team Spirit49c7,783$3,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,779.2212256.6%69 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Yandex51c7,087$3,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,491.911,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Team Yandex45c6,632$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,631.683951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex51c5,912$3,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,897.032,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked Team Yandex45c5,579$2,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,08410451%53 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3926…7e9ebacked Team Yandex45c4,900$2,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,671.472766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+31.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf512…40e3backed Team Yandex44c4,663$2,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,591.443650%18 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Team Yandex43c4,152$1,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,359.3134146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Team Spirit54c3,674$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00041055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a3f…a807backed Team Spirit1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Team Yandex42c2,976$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.1923746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Team Yandex50c2,975$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,482.4714947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3db3…932fbacked Team Yandex54c2,780$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.716149.7%80 W · 81 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb71…0536backed Team Yandex80c2,695$2,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.29850%4 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Team Yandex46c2,541$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.2114840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Spirit55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,37528159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48e4…c99ebacked Team Spirit4c2,500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Yandex63c2,379$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.0720159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Team Spirit53c2,171$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.4715946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed9e…5fc7backed Team Spirit50c2,012$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Team Spirit58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16011547%54 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Team Yandex75c1,879$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.4756848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Team Spirit49c1,869$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9193036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Team Yandex67c1,695$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.449750.5%49 W · 48 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca21…79ccbacked Team Spirit48c1,510$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72580%0 W · 8 L-4.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Team Spirit58c1,404$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.9421350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked Team Spirit60c1,400$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84215653.2%83 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5304…13e8backed Team Spirit48c1,363$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6611822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Team Yandex42c1,329$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.756854.4%37 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Team Spirit48c1,095$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.654445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed Team Yandex51c1,052$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.3720361.6%125 W · 78 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Yandex48c1,022$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.1355751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Spirit57c999.99$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.9953652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc459…7b3fbacked Team Yandex52c961.59$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.592759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+45.5%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Team Spirit4c900$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36879.2%8 W · 79 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4965…176fbacked Team Spirit58c700$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4061942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Spirit52c684.99$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.7339660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Yandex42c645.99$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.660552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea61…cc32backed Team Yandex50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3007549.3%37 W · 38 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x83c9…bacfbacked Team Spirit38c599.02$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.661540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Team Spirit42c585.14$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.7514537.2%54 W · 91 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc651…15d3backed Team Spirit54c558.1$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Team Yandex50c510$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25510048%48 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2249…3005backed Team Yandex53c472.4$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.49645.8%44 W · 52 L-12.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Team Spirit55c439.94$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.2723529.4%69 W · 166 L-21.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Spirit44c417.47$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.6153844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Yandex44c405.5$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.0855251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed Team Spirit24c400$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967452.7%39 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30d1…2ecdbacked Team Spirit40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16012533.6%42 W · 83 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Spirit20c393.88$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9352243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7c…5a30backed Team Spirit5c371.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.569544.2%42 W · 53 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1bd…9980backed Team Spirit14c370$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd892…f6d9backed Team Spirit59c344.15$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.92035%7 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-36.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed Team Yandex50c306.44$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.5822033.6%74 W · 146 L-0.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed Team Yandex44c300.89$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.510745.8%49 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Team Spirit37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11165625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62d1…c018backed Team Yandex50c292.93$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.792755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e1…3ff3backed Team Spirit53c283.17$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Yandex41c267.41$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.7789440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x791b…029ebacked Team Yandex53c266.93$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.934951%25 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1c3…7d73backed Team Spirit20c250.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ca…5b34backed Team Spirit27c242.3$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Team Spirit51c241$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.788748.3%42 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3228…b4e3backed Team Yandex43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.567037.1%26 W · 44 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Team Yandex48c230.81$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.028845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x197b…7477backed Team Yandex43c229.79$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.496633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Team Spirit38c226.6$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1416232.7%53 W · 109 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Team Spirit49c224.69$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11019743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Team Yandex48c210$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.373743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9be…8b35backed Team Spirit49c204.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008349.4%41 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Team Spirit12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24613.3%2 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-61%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6916…7345backed Team Spirit25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa17…3aa2backed Team Spirit50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008557.6%49 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32eb…0c1bbacked Team Yandex49c199$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.494257.1%24 W · 18 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+37.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdb3a…0338backed Team Spirit50c198$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996963.8%44 W · 25 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb8f…d7e3backed Team Spirit37c197.97$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.251070%7 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+37.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x417e…15e5backed Team Yandex52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.313426.5%9 W · 25 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Team Yandex69c188.76$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.889756.7%55 W · 42 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e47…3d20backed Team Yandex53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.684065%26 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Yandex75c187.17$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9646872.2%338 W · 130 L+36.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf8c…4bc2backed Team Spirit54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Team Yandex66c182.35$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3545951.9%238 W · 221 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee1…377abacked Team Yandex43c182.14$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.828261%50 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Yandex36c181.6$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.2664744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked Team Yandex53c170.36$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0719443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fe9…a406backed Team Spirit59c149.15$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked Team Yandex43c139.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7722538.7%87 W · 138 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdc…3198backed Team Yandex54c137.96$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.96742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Team Spirit20c134.77$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.442740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb20…b9c0backed Team Spirit55c130$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.51915.8%3 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-63.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x81e4…532fbacked Team Spirit38c128.37$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.783740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcaf…8229backed Team Spirit48c121.73$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4333743.6%147 W · 190 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.