TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Games Total: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,524
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,264

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,524 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29f9…e310backed Under41c43,558$17,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,591.3112256.6%69 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Over56c14,790$8,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,25953451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Over73c12,325$8,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,946.9486659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Over61c11,457$6,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,999.1541055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7f…9550backed Over52c8,469$4,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,406.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Over55c4,711$2,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,591.2639660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Under44c4,527$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,526.6220159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Under47c4,502$2,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,407.1123746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Under47c4,255$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.323951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb71…0536backed Over65c3,680$2,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,398.27850%4 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked Over60c3,368$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.8215653.2%83 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf12a…f637backed Under49c3,357$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.952445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Over52c3,130$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.68258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3926…7e9ebacked Under48c3,130$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.62766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+31.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked Over58c2,770$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60010451%53 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed Over42c2,640$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.48627.9%24 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Over56c2,600$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45628159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Under39c2,543$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.0348954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Under28c1,656$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.4789749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Under49c1,546$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.6156848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db3…932fbacked Under35c1,429$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.5716149.7%80 W · 81 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Over53c1,383$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73310048%48 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea61…cc32backed Under48c1,252$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.967549.3%37 W · 38 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb67…fd46backed Under17c1,150$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9529533.7%32 W · 63 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Under7c1,014$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.53879.2%8 W · 79 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4965…176fbacked Over55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d1…2ecdbacked Over34c999.98$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34212533.6%42 W · 83 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Under40c972.73$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.860552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Under39c971.71$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.655251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e1…3ff3backed Over62c783.53$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.791963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Over56c719.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40019743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Under39c689.74$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.7421350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a5d…99ebbacked Under75c679.29$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.4214668.5%100 W · 46 L+14.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd781…92a0backed Over62c600$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3721533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb569…6fe0backed Under40c596$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.827548%132 W · 143 L-1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ab…01cabacked Over55c545.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1318…0af2backed Over15c529.34$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.417633.5%59 W · 117 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over67c500$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.5559250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed Under48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26010745.8%49 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Under51c488.56$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.49756.7%55 W · 42 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Over55c424$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.1652243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed Under31c422.59$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.8222033.6%74 W · 146 L-0.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Under45c399.82$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.2729245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked Over74c350$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2591050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa99f…9c1ebacked Under9c343.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.45137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbe6…9562backed Over55c309.09$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95d6…9aeabacked Under47c300$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.912132.2%39 W · 82 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Under25c266.73$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.791,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cdc…3198backed Over63c219.05$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02d7…0c39backed Under25c212$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15920530.7%63 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed Over55c207.87$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.339555.8%53 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Over53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1063148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77e1…5924backed Under9c200$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e3…e46dbacked Over54c199.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.993826.3%10 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-43.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe564…e530backed Over66c197.21$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.162864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32eb…0c1bbacked Over51c196$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.964257.1%24 W · 18 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+37.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Under47c187.56$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.48845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Under40c185.31$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.7389440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked Under46c173.61$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7522538.7%87 W · 138 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Under60c165.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.314648.6%71 W · 75 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x791b…029ebacked Under46c143.48$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.484951%25 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed Over55c117.79$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6512661.1%77 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…8229backed Over64c108.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7033743.6%147 W · 190 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee1…377abacked Over56c104.41$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.478261%50 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b37…fcd6backed Under15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Over54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5463032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked Over30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fac…bdd8backed Under43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5713456%75 W · 59 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Over57c94.77$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0217946.9%84 W · 95 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67c3…0e36backed Over75c80$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012965.1%84 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x047a…941ebacked Under43c80$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.623640.7%96 W · 140 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb861…27ffbacked Under68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.538247.6%39 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Under46c70.17$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8954445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4af4…f744backed Over41c70$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick36cpaid-61.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x544e…2d9fbacked Over56c63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.286943.5%30 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked Over30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1819443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb3…0710backed Over41c58.17$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8511163.1%70 W · 41 L+0.4wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7068…984dbacked Over73c57.63$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.07425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x004c…7052backed Under45c55.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.563100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+119.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5ac…aa06backed Under46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7484…de96backed Over52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269651%49 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a1…1c72backed Over52c48.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254940.8%20 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Under62c47.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1111960.5%72 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Under47c47.17$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2514947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63e1…802abacked Over53c47.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked Over54c46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8415852.5%83 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb551…6e41backed Under29c43.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.82,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x382c…2261backed Over60c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2421155%116 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c66…9a81backed Under65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3703…2795backed Under38c39.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4715341.2%63 W · 90 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed Over55c37.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8810260.8%62 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18fe…a4a0backed Over62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206450%32 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa824…121bbacked Under43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a33…da7dbacked Over60c27.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.722268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad22…10dcbacked Under77c21.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.041770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfaa…cd5fbacked Over54c20.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117365.8%48 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Over59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.711943.7%52 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc209…7924backed Under63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.450757.4%291 W · 216 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.