Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46d42456f0278aca69b0885cb3c3ced35083a10a573c7fafee053d46a441c908

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Wolverhampton Wanderers FCof Aston Villa FC, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
Resolved: Feb 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,772
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,772 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xada5…db70backed Aston Villa FC	29c	12,968$3,755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,754.75	282	42.2%119 W · 163 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	71c	12,179$8,647 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,531.78	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	76c	4,299$3,260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,038.35	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Aston Villa FC	27c	2,250$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.48	133	27.1%36 W · 97 L	-4.0wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	70c	1,999$1,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$599.79	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Aston Villa FC	28c	1,616$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.1	459	36.2%166 W · 293 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Aston Villa FC	18c	1,111$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	176	34.1%60 W · 116 L	-13.2wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	71c	1,045$742 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303	524	54.2%284 W · 240 L	+14.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Aston Villa FC	29c	1,000$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	56	32.1%18 W · 38 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	80c	902.44$719 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.02	469	43.5%204 W · 265 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf81…80cebacked Aston Villa FC	28c	893.93$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.3	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+2.5wins	+0.28per pick	38cpaid	+62.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	72c	877.93$632 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.82	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bf6…f951backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	72c	870.43$627 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$243.72	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Aston Villa FC	29c	672.99$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.45	46	30.4%14 W · 32 L	-5.1wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Aston Villa FC	31c	652.85$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	108	47.2%51 W · 57 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	70c	611.56$429 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.32	2,550	47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aston Villa FC	26c	587.93$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.28	517	50.1%259 W · 258 L	+19.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde2f…cf77backed Aston Villa FC	14c	465$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.1	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9a…412ebacked Aston Villa FC	23c	434.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	75c	397$297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.06	1,934	42.4%820 W · 1,114 L	-43.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ea…706cbacked Aston Villa FC	30c	376.67$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf131…69cabacked Aston Villa FC	15c	371.85$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.32	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cca…2e23backed Aston Villa FC	29c	344.83$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15d7…a861backed Aston Villa FC	29c	344.83$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	121	43%52 W · 69 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Aston Villa FC	30c	333.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	66	27.3%18 W · 48 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Aston Villa FC	25c	316$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Aston Villa FC	29c	284$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.36	301	43.9%132 W · 169 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	72c	280$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.4	300	59.7%179 W · 121 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc194…f69fbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	75c	264$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Aston Villa FC	22c	255.81$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	286	33.9%97 W · 189 L	+19.7wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+22%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x34c0…db10backed Aston Villa FC	31c	211.84$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.67	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a3…bce8backed Aston Villa FC	27c	201$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.27	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	72c	197.51$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.35	1,409	44.5%627 W · 782 L	-6.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…e1b2backed Aston Villa FC	29c	186$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.94	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Aston Villa FC	30c	160$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	137	27.7%38 W · 99 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Aston Villa FC	29c	155.17$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	232	20.7%48 W · 184 L	-12.5wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1bb…5857backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	73c	137.43$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.11	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Aston Villa FC	30c	137.23$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.17	243	40.7%99 W · 144 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3036…15c2backed Aston Villa FC	29c	120.69$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	98	40.8%40 W · 58 L	-5.3wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ba…f2c5backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	73c	119$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.13	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x560a…a398backed Aston Villa FC	27c	119$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	76c	113.97$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.44	365	54.5%199 W · 166 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8e6…d96bbacked Aston Villa FC	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	59	32.2%19 W · 40 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb672…456fbacked Aston Villa FC	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Aston Villa FC	29c	100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	101	24.8%25 W · 76 L	-12.0wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Aston Villa FC	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Aston Villa FC	29c	100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	440	36.8%162 W · 278 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Aston Villa FC	24c	94$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.56	130	54.6%71 W · 59 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+15%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x571e…67b2backed Aston Villa FC	29c	86.21$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	117	36.8%43 W · 74 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x385e…3896backed Aston Villa FC	29c	86.21$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	118	39%46 W · 72 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb885…e677backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	74c	82.17$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.64	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.22per pick	50cpaid	-52%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60a0…da0dbacked Aston Villa FC	27c	74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	78c	71.83$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.58	131	52.7%69 W · 62 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	71c	70.42$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.42	277	48.7%135 W · 142 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d3…91aabacked Aston Villa FC	29c	70.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.36	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	40cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	72c	69.44$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.44	164	53.7%88 W · 76 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Aston Villa FC	29c	68.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	36%18 W · 32 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb30c…6cefbacked Aston Villa FC	30c	68.67$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	27	37%10 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Aston Villa FC	29c	59.21$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.17	758	50%379 W · 379 L	+20.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf10…557ebacked Aston Villa FC	26c	55.73$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.49	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3af…2c0abacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	72c	55.56$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.56	66	59.1%39 W · 27 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf292…1cc7backed Aston Villa FC	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	100	46%46 W · 54 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…17c4backed Aston Villa FC	29c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+45.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	72c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	207	63.8%132 W · 75 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa330…fa37backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	71c	49.3$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.3	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Aston Villa FC	25c	48.83$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	515	16.1%83 W · 432 L	-49.9wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	74c	40$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.4	162	51.2%83 W · 79 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Aston Villa FC	30c	34.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.39	357	43.1%154 W · 203 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7daf…ee4dbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	75c	33.33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.33	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	74c	31.91$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.36	163	57.1%93 W · 70 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	75c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.5	891	52.9%471 W · 420 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	79c	19.34$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.16	194	55.2%107 W · 87 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	74c	17.35$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.51	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	74c	17.23$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.5	497	53.7%267 W · 230 L	+27.6wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b55…87d4backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	72c	16.73$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.68	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	79c	16.62$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.56	46	58.7%27 W · 19 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d9d…afcbbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	72c	16.27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.56	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ec…f645backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	71c	16$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.64	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	74cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4909…8f39backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	74c	14.75$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.83	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de6…e311backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	73c	14.67$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.96	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	77c	13.16$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.05	426	58%247 W · 179 L	+24.6wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)this page
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Wolverhampton Wanderers FC won
Spread: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (-1.5)Wolverhampton Wanderers FC won
Spread: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event