Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46ee613c7a77550ea07c085fb9c52dd698b0c7c83eb7bbfe0fde0fb18fe2b365
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 41c | 1,357$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.48 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 812.6$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 46c | 703.47$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.94 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 56c | 554.71$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.55 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…adc5backed No | 51c | 554.18$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.07 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 511.04$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 49c | 499.99$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.31 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 453.17$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 54c | 444.04$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.64 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 48c | 418.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.1 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 404.16$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.01 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 355.46$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 317.64$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 315.05$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.29 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 310.88$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 77c | 285.32$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 264$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 262.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 45c | 246.08$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.09 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 50c | 244.78$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.35 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 243.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 78c | 192.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 61c | 189.02$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 45c | 180$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 58c | 178.28$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 170.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 157.69$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 144$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 142.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 48c | 134.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.24 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 131.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 29c | 130.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 130.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 120.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 36c | 118$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 52c | 114.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 110.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 47c | 107.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 107.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 106.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 21c | 103.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 48c | 99.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 99.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 98.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 88.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 51c | 87.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 86.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…e332backed No | 63c | 79.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 75.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 45c | 71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 41c | 66.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 19c | 64.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed Yes | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…01fabacked No | 17c | 60.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 54c | 60.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 55c | 59.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 27c | 59.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 44c | 59.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 58.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked No | 28c | 54.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 35c | 54.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 49.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a2…9633backed No | 51c | 48.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 24c | 46.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 46.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 35c | 44.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 45c | 44.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…0c8bbacked Yes | 67c | 44.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 54c | 43.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 47c | 43.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 34c | 42.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…5712backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 35c | 42.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 48c | 41.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 41.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…767dbacked Yes | 49c | 40.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 50c | 40.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 46c | 38.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 70c | 37.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.