Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65b2ba59ec0bae67b14ce36e4be6ba5525cecbef43dbb770dbe7186ec61d59ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 21c | 1,378$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 1,172$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 75c | 1,115$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.68 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 37c | 779.04$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.18 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 40c | 767.1$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.33 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 655.16$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 607.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 24c | 599.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 37c | 568.21$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 40c | 468.91$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.01 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 434.99$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 428$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 398.09$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 364.89$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 68c | 357.31$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.74 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 344.41$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 326.14$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 320$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 311.91$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 66c | 239.78$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 25c | 232.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…23debacked No | 65c | 230.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 229.49$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 68c | 199.6$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 70c | 171.78$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 62c | 163.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…8487backed No | 61c | 162.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 159.02$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 145.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 20c | 143$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 138.43$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9c…692bbacked Yes | 36c | 138.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 137.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 133.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 131.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 24c | 120.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 32c | 119.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 34c | 117.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 31c | 111.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 110.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 106$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed Yes | 27c | 102$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 70c | 98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 92.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 43c | 80.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 25c | 80.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x109c…9cc4backed Yes | 32c | 78.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 76.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…e332backed No | 66c | 76.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 74.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 29c | 74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 53c | 73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 28c | 70.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 23c | 69.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 69.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 61c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 26c | 65.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 65.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 75c | 64.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 64.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…7d40backed No | 79c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 63.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 62.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 32c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 61.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 28c | 61.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 58c | 60.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16b…79b7backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…4a59backed No | 63c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 29c | 57.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…ddbebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…af49backed Yes | 19c | 56.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e90…c892backed Yes | 35c | 54.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 27c | 52.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 51.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 49.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…714bbacked Yes | 44c | 48.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 63c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 79c | 46.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.