TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,138

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,269 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes21c1,378$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2881,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes25c1,172$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.3510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked No75c1,115$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.687251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes37c779.04$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.1839427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes40c767.1$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.338421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No69c655.16$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.182,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes33c607.48$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes24c599.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.425135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes37c568.21$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8115527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c30…0ac6backed No78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes40c468.91$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.0127047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c434.99$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.25,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No69c428$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.464,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c398.09$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.164,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No57c364.89$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.294,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No68c357.31$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7484124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No66c344.41$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.743,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c326.14$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.224,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No72c320$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.053,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No60c311.91$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.34,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No66c239.78$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4576059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes25c232.06$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5920133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfddd…23debacked No65c230.09$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.092075%15 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No80c229.49$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.834,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No68c199.6$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0949543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No70c171.78$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3483459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28b9…427cbacked No62c163.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.363764.9%24 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5d…8487backed No61c162.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.641861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No63c159.02$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.266,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.563255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes41c145.05$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes20c143$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8745130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No67c138.43$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.011,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c9c…692bbacked Yes36c138.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes40c137.08$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4381558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2749…e996backed Yes37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505225%13 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes31c133.66$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes20c131.12$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.096,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes24c120.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.672,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes41c120$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2363143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed Yes32c119.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7925332%81 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes34c117.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011146.8%52 W · 59 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9210…70a4backed Yes31c111.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.513429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes27c111.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c110.52$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x276a…d445backed Yes27c110$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304632.6%15 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No75c106$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.255,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce5…6233backed Yes27c102$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8913559.3%80 W · 55 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5916437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No70c98$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.415669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No61c92.68$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.779,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No68c90$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.63,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes43c80.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3561249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb335…aac1backed Yes25c80.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209538.9%37 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6961…511bbacked No72c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.284461.4%27 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x109c…9cc4backed Yes32c78.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.072227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes29c76.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.121,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7610…e332backed No66c76.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.072161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes36c74.57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.853,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes29c74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7147538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed No53c73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.291838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes28c70.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes23c69.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.97540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No67c69.86$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.751,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No76c67$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.023,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No61c66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0168867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes26c65.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0116733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c65.3$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.413,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No75c64.49$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.151,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes30c64.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.234,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadae…7d40backed No79c64$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes25c63.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.82,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes21c62.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.141,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes32c62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7129732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No71c61.61$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.122,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes28c61.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0465934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6986…5585backed No58c60.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.129852%51 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes39c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6556048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8192…871ebacked Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.27749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe16b…79b7backed Yes35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked No78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.428762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa645…4a59backed No63c59.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes29c57.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9647935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd66f…ddbebacked Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda6e…af49backed Yes19c56.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e90…c892backed Yes35c54.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.98944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes27c52.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.089741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes29c51.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes35c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No64c49.72$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.723,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked No52c49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.583721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.2wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-58%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4089…714bbacked Yes44c48.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.911010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No60c47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.672,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No63c47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5726067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No79c46.25$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.923666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.