NBA · resolved market
Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4842a9948f534ed7a292041a407cb5e7b1e7dfd95623ad0cac5f88b68030686f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 38c | 1,600$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…6ffabacked No | 63c | 1,588$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.56 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed No | 45c | 1,542$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.97 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81b2…c617backed Yes | 37c | 900.97$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 60c | 791.56$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.62 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 68c | 664.99$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.71 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6d…71b4backed Yes | 37c | 541.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Yes | 37c | 412.9$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -14.1wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…1648backed Yes | 27c | 371.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 72c | 351.9$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27e…3575backed Yes | 30c | 305.28$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5760…ec95backed Yes | 35c | 304.82$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed No | 64c | 250$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 456 | 57%260 W · 196 L | +44.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 39c | 237.7$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 219 | 37%81 W · 138 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…036ebacked Yes | 29c | 227.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…7656backed Yes | 30c | 225.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024d…f0debacked Yes | 45c | 218.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 61c | 87.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Yes | 29c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 41c | 76.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…93d7backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 216 | 72.2%156 W · 60 L | +28.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…8498backed Yes | 36c | 68.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…46e8backed Yes | 37c | 62.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…50e2backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 45c | 46.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 71c | 23.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5this page
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Mavericks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-15.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.