TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Timberwolves, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$561,927
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$589,461

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $561,927 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Mavericks47c141,399$66,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,941.2587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Mavericks48c126,000$60,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,438.6643148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Mavericks48c107,011$51,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,489.012,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8bd…b7aabacked Timberwolves53c92,898$49,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,235.941127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Timberwolves52c67,528$35,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,114.6544352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Timberwolves53c60,906$32,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,114.2351354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Timberwolves52c59,294$30,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,832.6760351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Timberwolves52c58,914$30,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,635.3887451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc311…44fcbacked Mavericks48c27,698$13,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,402.923135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves52c22,695$11,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,706.359,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Timberwolves52c19,231$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Mavericks48c18,587$8,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,665.0559347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Timberwolves51c17,643$9,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,043.831,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Timberwolves52c16,757$8,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,713.751,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Timberwolves53c9,434$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Mavericks47c9,138$4,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,808.2865750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Mavericks49c6,122$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,122.4520849.5%103 W · 105 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Mavericks47c6,000$2,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,18058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Timberwolves52c5,769$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Timberwolves50c5,500$2,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,77569149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Mavericks50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Timberwolves53c4,717$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Mavericks47c3,404$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.11,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Timberwolves53c3,026$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60441649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Mavericks48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x605d…cec3backed Mavericks50c2,892$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44615450.6%78 W · 76 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Mavericks47c2,298$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.8749246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks48c2,268$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.783,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f6…4d7ebacked Mavericks48c2,012$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Timberwolves53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06048957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Timberwolves52c2,000$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04889050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Timberwolves51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.991,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Timberwolves53c1,900$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.2950653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Timberwolves53c1,689$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89537747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Mavericks49c1,633$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.6548546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Timberwolves53c1,532$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.0736351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Timberwolves35c1,405$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.053,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Timberwolves52c1,200$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62433146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Timberwolves38c1,050$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.761,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4412…a488backed Timberwolves50c806$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4031442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ba…f2c5backed Mavericks50c797$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.51020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-61.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Mavericks48c786.78$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.791,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Mavericks48c730.18$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.72,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae1…d85abacked Timberwolves52c708.25$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.292250%11 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Timberwolves52c690.32$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.8241947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdab9…cdfcbacked Timberwolves53c682.69$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3605437%20 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Timberwolves53c679.25$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36017953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Timberwolves50c640$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32050954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Mavericks48c601.99$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.031,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79b0…ea3bbacked Mavericks50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30015154.3%82 W · 69 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Timberwolves56c549.42$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.533,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Mavericks47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26549345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves50c455.69$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.974,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves51c443.25$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.065,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe616…ef15backed Timberwolves53c435$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Mavericks49c426.53$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.5332450.6%164 W · 160 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Mavericks48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6726640.2%107 W · 159 L+1.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Mavericks49c405$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.572,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c2f…9765backed Timberwolves53c395.28$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.56238.7%24 W · 38 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Mavericks49c382.99$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.3291148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa62e…8885backed Timberwolves53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.39per pick56cpaid-78.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Timberwolves31c365.28$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2428537.9%108 W · 177 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Mavericks51c349.48$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.983,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Timberwolves37c334.92$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.411,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks47c332.92$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.344,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Timberwolves52c296.45$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1526756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Timberwolves53c288.3$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.562,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Timberwolves51c268.97$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.493148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Mavericks49c241$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.9154443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x891f…88bfbacked Timberwolves52c240.38$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12523249.6%115 W · 117 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb314…aacbbacked Timberwolves53c233.3$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.141656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Mavericks49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0827052.6%142 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Mavericks48c201.65$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.963,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Mavericks49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10282440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Timberwolves51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10227246.7%127 W · 145 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Timberwolves31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Timberwolves53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10630641.8%128 W · 178 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves57c193.4$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.268,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa207…8461backed Timberwolves52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d34…05d8backed Timberwolves53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002532%8 W · 17 L-5.3wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-41.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc3e5…697abacked Timberwolves53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020650%103 W · 103 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Timberwolves53c169.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.159144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…2e45backed Mavericks50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808456%47 W · 37 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Timberwolves53c158.35$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.151,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Timberwolves55c145$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7554351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2781…0b3bbacked Timberwolves52c144.23$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Timberwolves49c143.86$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.492,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Timberwolves71c140$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5427357.1%156 W · 117 L+0.9wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Mavericks49c139.35$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.161,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc998…f060backed Mavericks79c134.36$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5512458.9%73 W · 51 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcf0…b95dbacked Timberwolves52c133.35$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010955%60 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Mavericks49c130.48$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5148852%254 W · 234 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65d8…bac6backed Mavericks48c122.37$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6338350.4%193 W · 190 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Timberwolves31c120$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.621,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa0…d504backed Mavericks49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.28350.6%42 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43e0…132abacked Mavericks47c109.69$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1413639.7%54 W · 82 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Mavericks47c108.03$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.261,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Mavericks49c105.57$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.892750.6%469 W · 458 L-1.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf095…111bbacked Mavericks48c105.44$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8311250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fad…374cbacked Mavericks48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1718644.1%82 W · 104 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.