NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6147ca5a89f05f6b0fec6455e53e9fdea4ee7b596025484197a145aa6fbfb5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 25c | 2,017$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.54 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 6c | 1,682$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 12c | 626.33$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.09 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 10c | 387.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.95 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 4c | 360$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.6 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 15c | 173$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 37c | 135.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 131.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 56c | 106$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6026…9ef5backed Over | 52c | 99.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 34c | 95.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 44c | 95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Under | 42c | 92.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 16c | 86.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 57c | 85.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 80.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 58c | 79.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…b054backed Over | 52c | 68.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…6aa3backed Over | 77c | 66.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 53c | 58.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 59c | 49.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 41c | 28.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 60c | 25.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…2988backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 67c | 15.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 168 | 67.3%113 W · 55 L | +13.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5this page
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Mavericks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-15.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.