TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,798
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,827

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,798 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc974…b33bbacked Under48c3,841$1,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.1324942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Under48c3,788$1,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.9651354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under43c3,668$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.23,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Under47c3,000$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,582.6435942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x605d…cec3backed Over42c2,763$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.1315450.6%78 W · 76 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under47c2,627$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.944,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Over53c2,047$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.691,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over51c1,946$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.2387750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over52c1,670$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.3964651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over51c1,442$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.128,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5009742.3%41 W · 56 L-10.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over51c955.92$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.522,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over52c826.23$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.93,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under59c820$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.151,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Over52c681.42$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.0731354.3%170 W · 143 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Under47c615.05$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.9892753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Under50c601.42$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.0615543.2%67 W · 88 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Over50c596.99$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.091,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under48c544$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.886,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over52c500$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26284150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25033150.8%168 W · 163 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over53c499$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.474,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over50c495.97$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.453,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over50c416.29$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.155,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Under39c412.83$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.8128537.9%108 W · 177 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53aa…07fcbacked Over53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2129051.1%46 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over54c380$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1562347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under49c336.4$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.814,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f43…c0c2backed Under50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15023435.9%84 W · 150 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15053951.6%278 W · 261 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Over51c298.04$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15216837.5%63 W · 105 L-20.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over49c260.51$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.651,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under47c260$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.845646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over47c250.95$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.952,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07fe…8f90backed Under47c210.63$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.631947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c61…4fa6backed Under52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.317057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over56c185.36$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.373,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over47c156.22$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.484,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over57c153.11$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.063,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under44c146.75$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.681,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over52c140.3$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8991148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c139$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.399,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under47c130$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.956547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed Under54c123$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.72343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9973…cc32backed Under48c119.64$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.643046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under48c116.4$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5362541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4836453%193 W · 171 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7157…7ba4backed Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5023246.1%107 W · 125 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Over41c99.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4143246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Under48c99.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9952951.2%271 W · 258 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7509…d031backed Under48c99.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9920847.1%98 W · 110 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under48c99.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.241,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Over53c98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.451,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under45c95.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1165872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over53c94.75$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6488057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3c2…6d84backed Over52c94.74$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.451650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Under49c83$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.421,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over50c80.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.013,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Under39c79.08$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.358937.1%33 W · 56 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2965…e965backed Over54c74.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-43.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over47c63.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.542,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed Over54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.260267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e8b…113ebacked Over51c58.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over54c55.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3022756.8%129 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Under36c52.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4539047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa30…c7abbacked Under48c52.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0811448.2%55 W · 59 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2778648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf095…111bbacked Under47c47.22$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0311250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over49c44.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.872,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf71…9f1cbacked Under47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.211051.8%57 W · 53 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Over48c37.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1215662.8%98 W · 58 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfc0…3acebacked Over54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019848.5%96 W · 102 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Over51c32.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.611,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…2e45backed Over52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158456%47 W · 37 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under50c27.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.811,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Under42c27.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.814359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked Over60c25.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3417243%74 W · 98 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Under50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.536350.1%182 W · 181 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Over56c24.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1466646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Under48c24.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6376552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over57c23.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.23,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb17…071abacked Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over52c19.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.332,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Over62c17.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.145653.5%244 W · 212 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.