NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9453e95c6957df273cc1ed55cba62c997631bb58d6f890a8f8f9c76204f5b6b8

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 21, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $61,232
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,514

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,232 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	16,258$8,001 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,001.03	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Under	51c	10,000$5,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,900	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Under	50c	5,040$2,520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,520	359	42.1%151 W · 208 L	-12.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	48c	4,965$2,375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,590.07	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under	51c	4,902$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,401.96	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea2…9ad4backed Over	51c	4,898$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	128	55.5%71 W · 57 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Under	50c	3,793$1,897 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,896.72	773	48.5%375 W · 398 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Over	51c	2,077$1,059 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,059.48	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Under	53c	1,897$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$897.13	201	47.8%96 W · 105 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	49c	1,645$807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807.05	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	51c	1,615$819 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$795.81	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Over	50c	1,400$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	492	46.3%228 W · 264 L	-15.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	43c	1,397$601 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$796.45	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over	50c	1,099$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550.27	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	50c	1,076$538 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$538.07	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Under	51c	980.36$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.38	240	50.8%122 W · 118 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under	50c	900$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450	617	40.7%251 W · 366 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	49c	896.18$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.13	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	50c	800$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	48c	773.35$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.48	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under	50c	730$365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$365	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x004e…c650backed Under	51c	692.92$353 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$339.53	186	50%93 W · 93 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d1e…effebacked Over	51c	660$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.6	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	46c	635$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$342.9	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Under	51c	600$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$294	98	42.9%42 W · 56 L	-5.7wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	49c	571$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.79	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	49c	431.68$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.36	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over	50c	400$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	841	50.3%423 W · 418 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b1a…68d8backed Under	52c	400$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192	146	52.1%76 W · 70 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	51c	317.77$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.13	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Over	48c	300$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	224	53.1%119 W · 105 L	+29.4wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+29.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Under	52c	288.46$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.46	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	50c	257.75$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.88	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x459f…c1f5backed Over	51c	255$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.05	126	45.2%57 W · 69 L	-5.7wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	786	52.4%412 W · 374 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	410	52%213 W · 197 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Over	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	283	48.8%138 W · 145 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d34…05d8backed Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-5.3wins	-0.21per pick	53cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x90e8…b97ebacked Under	50c	164.11$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.06	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under	51c	163$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.87	666	46.8%312 W · 354 L	-29.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	50c	153.94$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.64	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Under	49c	149.99$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.5	103	48.5%50 W · 53 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	49c	148.41$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.72	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over	50c	120.6$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.78	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Under	20c	104.72$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.78	379	30.6%116 W · 263 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Under	43c	102$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.14	390	55.6%217 W · 173 L	+8.8wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	425	51.3%218 W · 207 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	413	54%223 W · 190 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	86	51.2%44 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc1…36bbbacked Under	51c	98.52$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.52	78	48.7%38 W · 40 L	-5.0wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Under	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	175	45.7%80 W · 95 L	-9.2wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc208…e74fbacked Over	51c	97.58$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.76	72	51.4%37 W · 35 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f40…361abacked Under	45c	90$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.5	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+3.4wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	50c	73.18$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.59	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Under	52c	53.85$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.85	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under	45c	51$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.83	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53d7…0b48backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x819a…4b03backed Over	49c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	141	51.8%73 W · 68 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x001a…3d3ebacked Over	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Over	50c	49$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf421…5e13backed Over	56c	45.39$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.42	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	52c	42.17$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.74	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Over	52c	40.73$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.18	534	53.4%285 W · 249 L	+19.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.2	538	39.4%212 W · 326 L	-26.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbd9…aea9backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	101	56.4%57 W · 44 L	+5.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74d0…f39ebacked Under	50c	39.96$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.96	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Under	43c	39.86$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.72	432	46.1%199 W · 233 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef80…6aa3backed Under	46c	30.8$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.65	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80cf…0ec7backed Under	52c	29.65$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.35	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d2d…4565backed Over	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8f8…5a82backed Under	53c	28.25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+88%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73e…43f1backed Under	50c	28.12$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.13	160	52.5%84 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x669b…6557backed Under	50c	28$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+2.4wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+92%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6cd6…16abbacked Under	50c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	105	58.1%61 W · 44 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb640…9ebcbacked Over	52c	24.75$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.87	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Over	53c	23.73$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	156	63.5%99 W · 57 L	+10.9wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7fe…068ebacked Under	51c	23.53$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.53	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aec…cce5backed Under	50c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.4	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+98.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf095…111bbacked Under	50c	22.77$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.39	112	50.9%57 W · 55 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Under	51c	21.57$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.57	564	54.3%306 W · 258 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	215	53.5%115 W · 100 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	379	59.4%225 W · 154 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	140	53.6%75 W · 65 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5this page
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 10.5No won
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 13.5No won
Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Julius Randle: Points O/U 20.5No won
Mavericks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Max Christie: Points O/U 15.5No won
Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Timberwolves (-15.5)Mavericks won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event