TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Timberwolves, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,950

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,515 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xada5…db70backed Timberwolves44c3,374$1,485 inLost-$1,484.5651354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks56c3,298$1,847 inWon+$1,451.299,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Timberwolves56c607.14$340 inLost-$34046258.2%269 W · 193 L-0.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Mavericks44c607.14$267 inWon+$3402,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves53c211.32$112 inLost-$111.778,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Mavericks49c200$97 inWon+$102.861957.5%356 W · 263 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Timberwolves37c156.01$58 inLost-$57.923,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8c…686fbacked Timberwolves20c129.35$26 inLost-$25.752449.4%23 W · 221 L-27.5wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-72.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Mavericks55c127.72$70 inWon+$57.621,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves51c118.46$60 inLost-$60.414,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d0…c927backed Mavericks61c82.38$50 inWon+$32.388744.8%39 W · 48 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks54c54.35$29 inWon+$253,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…1adfbacked Mavericks55c49.09$27 inWon+$22.096943.5%30 W · 39 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Timberwolves45c42$19 inLost-$19.0223845.4%108 W · 130 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Timberwolves48c40$19 inLost-$19.288057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Mavericks76c20$15 inWon+$4.81,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14c3…0262backed Mavericks50c20$10 inWon+$109430.9%29 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd27…4721backed Mavericks59c18.64$11 inWon+$7.6410457.7%60 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.