NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x803589179270e83d0de23b3fff4c8e1cd5413ab040966d1b81aecb928e5490e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 62c | 381.64$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.58 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 61c | 218.03$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.03 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Under | 39c | 206.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 563 | 52%293 W · 270 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 14c | 171.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 31c | 144.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Under | 37c | 137.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 29c | 131.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 70c | 114.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Over | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a7…1493backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 15c | 98.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 39c | 94.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…6dc8backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 35c | 71.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…cd81backed Over | 79c | 66.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 33c | 35.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 63c | 33.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 39c | 31.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 29.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…dd4dbacked Over | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5this page
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Mavericks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-15.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.