NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x193bb9a882dc945dd6da05b0801b0849b7802c4134751a56ef5aa1b426254a49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Timberwolves, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Timberwolves | 59c | 4,000$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.99 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 40c | 3,651$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,178.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Timberwolves | 60c | 3,567$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 46c | 1,864$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mavericks | 63c | 1,361$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.43 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Mavericks | 41c | 1,231$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.39 | 140 | 61.4%86 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks | 39c | 753.77$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.72 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Mavericks | 42c | 681.18$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.54 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Timberwolves | 32c | 586.91$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.81 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 54c | 502.9$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.4 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks | 43c | 470.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.3 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Mavericks | 40c | 467.73$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.49 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks | 41c | 457.16$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.06 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…3499backed Timberwolves | 36c | 399.85$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.97 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves | 58c | 392.13$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.32 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Timberwolves | 60c | 371.63$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Timberwolves | 34c | 346.12$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.68 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Timberwolves | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 331.38$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.56 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Timberwolves | 40c | 304.58$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.83 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f43…c0c2backed Timberwolves | 58c | 300.03$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.82 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks | 40c | 279.32$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.59 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…19dcbacked Mavericks | 41c | 259.89$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…1da8backed Timberwolves | 61c | 255.72$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Timberwolves | 57c | 235.77$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Mavericks | 49c | 205.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.36 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Mavericks | 40c | 205.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Timberwolves | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Timberwolves | 57c | 175.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Timberwolves | 59c | 171.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…e904backed Timberwolves | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 45c | 140.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Timberwolves | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Mavericks | 41c | 129.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…1950backed Timberwolves | 61c | 127.87$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Mavericks | 60c | 104.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 532 | 50.4%268 W · 264 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Timberwolves | 42c | 103.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Mavericks | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…106cbacked Mavericks | 42c | 99.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Mavericks | 42c | 97.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Mavericks | 40c | 92.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Timberwolves | 28c | 90.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Mavericks | 56c | 89.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb178…1fa0backed Timberwolves | 57c | 88.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Mavericks | 41c | 82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Mavericks | 42c | 81.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Timberwolves | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…4b15backed Timberwolves | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Mavericks | 41c | 44.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…f39ebacked Mavericks | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Mavericks | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…666cbacked Timberwolves | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Timberwolves | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f5…a435backed Timberwolves | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Timberwolves | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…3c77backed Timberwolves | 59c | 31.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf6…b89abacked Timberwolves | 43c | 28.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Mavericks | 50c | 26.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…2964backed Mavericks | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…6aa3backed Mavericks | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Mavericks | 42c | 24.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +9.2wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Timberwolves | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220e…3b20backed Timberwolves | 59c | 18.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Mavericks | 68c | 18.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)this page
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Mavericks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
- Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-15.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.