Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $170 in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4851c665c968d0f87e5462527bea6f7976191affcb72720077fc67ab766eccfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $296,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $318,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $296,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 18c | 42,112$7,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,394.67 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 11c | 26,650$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998.43 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 21c | 17,057$3,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,630.81 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 4c | 12,079$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.25 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed No | 76c | 10,916$8,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,582.81 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 4c | 10,103$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.73 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 9c | 9,578$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.64 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…a7babacked No | 66c | 9,050$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,049.56 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 26c | 4,628$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.56 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 5c | 3,846$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.02 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f6…18bcbacked No | 78c | 1,940$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 18c | 1,887$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.51 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 17cpaid | -96.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes | 35c | 1,700$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,638$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ab…a546backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…a376backed Yes | 35c | 900$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked Yes | 35c | 850$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8938backed Yes | 8c | 817.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc453…2bcdbacked Yes | 36c | 718.46$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.46 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae0…237cbacked Yes | 14c | 708.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…3ff3backed Yes | 48c | 700$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 8c | 484.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 64c | 457.77$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.28 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…cfc4backed Yes | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +34%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 31c | 356.75$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.88 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked No | 44c | 318.07$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.12 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…ac69backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821c…ffc7backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked No | 79c | 253.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…c177backed Yes | 18c | 188.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c3…022fbacked No | 59c | 169.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 47c | 124.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked No | 57c | 110.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 40c | 98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c5…6702backed No | 62c | 85.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 34c | 78.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 49c | 49.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed No | 63c | 39.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1957…5756backed No | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $170 in September?this page
- Will Solana dip to $100 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $130 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $150 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $160 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $165 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $175 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $180 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $185 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $190 in September?No won
- Will Solana reach $205 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $210 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $215 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $220 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $225 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $235 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $240 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $250 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $270 in September?No won
- Will Solana reach $300 in September?No won
- Will Solana reach $350 in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.