Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $165 in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef63c46a548021825b5ebe9c1837694d5feeb0ff7da2dfeb8e855fb377cabc9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 22c | 24,588$5,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,408.57 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 13c | 22,579$2,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,951.92 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 14c | 20,688$2,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,795.04 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 3c | 15,250$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.59 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 9c | 12,295$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.43 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…a429backed No | 53c | 12,000$6,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,654.91 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 74c | 10,087$7,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,656.29 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…a7babacked No | 71c | 7,060$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060.33 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed No | 78c | 4,648$3,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.24 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,878$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 78c | 2,560$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.39 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 32c | 2,060$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.61 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 18c | 1,694$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.2 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 929.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes | 37c | 863.35$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.05 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…cfc4backed Yes | 38c | 800$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +34%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc453…2bcdbacked Yes | 38c | 800$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7341…0cd0backed No | 75c | 533.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…a376backed Yes | 38c | 400.22$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked Yes | 38c | 350$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1701…b483backed Yes | 9c | 302.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821c…ffc7backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…c177backed Yes | 14c | 257$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked No | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -11.2wins | -0.35per pick | 72cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked No | 56c | 248$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 52c | 108.33$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8079…b9cbbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160f…3539backed No | 70c | 98.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…7163backed No | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked No | 63c | 80.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked No | 67c | 59.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2591…a03fbacked No | 67c | 36.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 52c | 28.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8404…31cabacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…8b40backed No | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…126ebacked No | 63c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…45ddbacked No | 69c | 17.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 76c | 15.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $165 in September?this page
- Will Solana dip to $100 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $130 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $150 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $160 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $170 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $175 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $180 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $185 in September?No won
- Will Solana dip to $190 in September?No won
- Will Solana reach $205 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $210 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $215 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $220 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $225 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $235 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $240 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $250 in September?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $270 in September?No won
- Will Solana reach $300 in September?No won
- Will Solana reach $350 in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.