CS2 · resolved market
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49c4d9689f83b6564ece146010f78d56d331bcd9a44c48418570c0ac8a988c21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof Spirit, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf070…ac55backed OG | 59c | 18,396$10,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,616.98 | 333 | 43.8%146 W · 187 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Spirit | 41c | 11,879$4,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,870.39 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | +19.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spirit | 41c | 4,878$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c8…a814backed Spirit | 53c | 1,505$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6421…045dbacked Spirit | 46c | 1,134$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.56 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed OG | 45c | 950.21$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.62 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…3df5backed Spirit | 41c | 749.98$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.99 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Spirit | 48c | 565.76$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.46 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…e67bbacked OG | 69c | 507.86$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.86 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa526…c9f9backed OG | 58c | 479.72$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.48 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Spirit | 48c | 400.17$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.08 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75b…e377backed OG | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…5508backed OG | 51c | 382.16$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.26 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…6158backed Spirit | 46c | 330$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.71 | 380 | 52.6%200 W · 180 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked OG | 56c | 308.6$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.57 | 635 | 41.9%266 W · 369 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…72e7backed Spirit | 42c | 288.14$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed OG | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Spirit | 44c | 147.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Spirit | 47c | 118$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Spirit | 41c | 109.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 306 | 38.9%119 W · 187 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…f23fbacked OG | 58c | 61.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x857f…96ecbacked OG | 55c | 59.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Spirit | 45c | 53.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed OG | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…2ddebacked OG | 58c | 41.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed OG | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 226 | 51.3%116 W · 110 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Spirit | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Spirit | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 499 | 47.5%237 W · 262 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed OG | 44c | 37.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Spirit | 44c | 33.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85cd…aca5backed Spirit | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Spirit | 55c | 22.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 263 | 44.1%116 W · 147 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked OG | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…5e79backed OG | 58c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG - Map 2 WinnerOG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5)Spirit won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5Under won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5)OG won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5Over won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)OG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.