CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4518395def8cc64fa1b2dec5e1bc18fda6a68a3f3f79df9c527d666fe7fa63ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Spirit, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba43…c6c0backed OG | 18c | 11,135$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.81 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f7…d6aebacked OG | 2c | 9,424$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.28 | 221 | 29.9%66 W · 155 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…e7e0backed OG | 17c | 8,973$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.27 | 170 | 62.9%107 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…1746backed OG | 18c | 5,280$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.78 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…c98bbacked OG | 16c | 4,725$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.45 | 410 | 40%164 W · 246 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…4079backed OG | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed OG | 6c | 1,675$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…cdd6backed OG | 18c | 1,100$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 152 | 44.7%68 W · 84 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed OG | 15c | 763.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.17 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b760backed OG | 6c | 690.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 316 | 47.5%150 W · 166 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed OG | 5c | 686$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 327 | 32.4%106 W · 221 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed OG | 15c | 685.89$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…1ea1backed OG | 14c | 550$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked OG | 11c | 543.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…1aecbacked OG | 7c | 526.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked OG | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…749bbacked OG | 13c | 500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 302 | 23.2%70 W · 232 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6f…9f0abacked OG | 10c | 477.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked OG | 10c | 461.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed OG | 16c | 445.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 288 | 43.1%124 W · 164 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed OG | 16c | 325.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed OG | 7c | 272.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…dbe6backed OG | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 367 | 49.3%181 W · 186 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…5bfdbacked OG | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed OG | 11c | 249.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 1,407 | 38.9%547 W · 860 L | -41.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed OG | 16c | 235.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed OG | 14c | 127.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…c546backed OG | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…20a2backed OG | 15c | 89.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked OG | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed OG | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG - Map 2 WinnerOG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5)Spirit won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5Under won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5)OG won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5Over won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5)OG won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)OG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.