CS2 · resolved market
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e2c58dbb6386548e1d1ea0aa21dde3eb1b440de4845de62020ea312d13383ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof Spirit, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf070…ac55backed OG | 53c | 17,797$9,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,421.36 | 333 | 43.8%146 W · 187 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…dddcbacked Spirit | 47c | 6,283$2,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,952.96 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Spirit | 47c | 4,444$2,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,088.68 | 471 | 47.3%223 W · 248 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked OG | 49c | 4,063$2,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,055.81 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…af95backed OG | 54c | 2,220$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.91 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…5b67backed Spirit | 46c | 2,118$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.87 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…bc19backed Spirit | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 159 | 62.9%100 W · 59 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Spirit | 47c | 1,702$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 635 | 41.9%266 W · 369 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da7…26d3backed Spirit | 47c | 1,579$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…bf89backed Spirit | 47c | 1,355$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c8…a814backed Spirit | 54c | 1,349$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.2 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…7367backed Spirit | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 156 | 48.1%75 W · 81 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…0abfbacked Spirit | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Spirit | 48c | 518.07$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.67 | 386 | 50.8%196 W · 190 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Spirit | 45c | 433.3$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.89 | 341 | 40.8%139 W · 202 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed OG | 48c | 289.25$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.11 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2c…f0d6backed Spirit | 52c | 275$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…a065backed Spirit | 47c | 268.77$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.22 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed OG | 49c | 249.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.55 | 514 | 46.9%241 W · 273 L | -22.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Spirit | 48c | 249.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Spirit | 49c | 206.2$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Spirit | 47c | 179.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Spirit | 51c | 144.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed OG | 51c | 133.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 418 | 53.6%224 W · 194 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked OG | 50c | 127.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…eedebacked Spirit | 50c | 127.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed OG | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 207 | 42.5%88 W · 119 L | -17.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed OG | 54c | 101.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked Spirit | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…4fadbacked Spirit | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Spirit | 51c | 93.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…d4f1backed OG | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked OG | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 306 | 38.9%119 W · 187 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed OG | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 309 | 39.2%121 W · 188 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…8501backed Spirit | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Spirit | 54c | 68.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed OG | 51c | 63.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 241 | 52.3%126 W · 115 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…1d65backed OG | 56c | 62.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked OG | 50c | 62.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3416…adaabacked OG | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 289 | 35.3%102 W · 187 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked OG | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Spirit | 45c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed OG | 48c | 52.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Spirit | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Spirit | 51c | 38.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40c…d480backed OG | 52c | 36.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed OG | 50c | 33.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 368 | 56.8%209 W · 159 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631a…a80fbacked Spirit | 52c | 28.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed OG | 52c | 27.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Spirit | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Spirit | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 499 | 47.5%237 W · 262 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG - Map 2 WinnerOG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5)Spirit won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5Under won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5Over won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5)OG won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)OG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.