CS2 · resolved market
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5b3ddb9401e08d554e7d8e43a1f5b4b27282cffc82f7c3222765e6dd5678dbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Over | 43c | 8,717$3,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,999.62 | 249 | 43.8%109 W · 140 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…e700backed Under | 57c | 7,614$4,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,340 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Over | 43c | 5,585$2,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,182.73 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…29e0backed Under | 59c | 4,914$2,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,906.48 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Over | 41c | 2,797$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.36 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Over | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.99 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Over | 32c | 1,411$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.48 | 471 | 47.3%223 W · 248 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7e…8a0fbacked Under | 59c | 1,210$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -50%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 30c | 1,065$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.79 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b6…eec6backed Under | 55c | 527.59$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.45 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked Under | 61c | 427$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.47 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9b…3f82backed Under | 57c | 394.74$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…4e0ebacked Over | 48c | 145.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa95…f1b3backed Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…49c7backed Over | 33c | 142.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.42 | 351 | 47.9%168 W · 183 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 60c | 140$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…7841backed Under | 54c | 137.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -11.4wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…5b67backed Over | 30c | 131.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 41c | 130.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 200 | 45%90 W · 110 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f49…2285backed Over | 44c | 112.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…c028backed Under | 60c | 94.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 48c | 78.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 220 | 37.3%82 W · 138 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da2…22b6backed Over | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 389 | 45.8%178 W · 211 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b64…b3d9backed Under | 52c | 75.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e6c9backed Under | 64c | 60.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…179ebacked Over | 48c | 49.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Under | 52c | 49.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 56c | 41.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 35.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 226 | 51.3%116 W · 110 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f6…0b0fbacked Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Under | 62c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe692…13a8backed Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Under | 67c | 17.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 67c | 16.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +6.5wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG - Map 2 WinnerOG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5)Spirit won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5Under won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5)OG won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5Over won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5)OG won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)OG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.