Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a421399c945a8253d0f45d83237256495f4339f1638e0f4ed4ef3a8a1f07a89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Shopify Rebellion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed Team Liquid | 76c | 1,902$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.57 | 403 | 70.2%283 W · 120 L | +31.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…2c03backed Shopify Rebellion | 27c | 1,026$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Shopify Rebellion | 23c | 900$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 712 | 49.2%350 W · 362 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…b8abbacked Shopify Rebellion | 25c | 799.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 331 | 53.2%176 W · 155 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Team Liquid | 73c | 786.79$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.43 | 675 | 52.4%354 W · 321 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked Team Liquid | 78c | 369.98$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8edb…d34dbacked Shopify Rebellion | 26c | 352.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Team Liquid | 76c | 329.08$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 650 | 63.2%411 W · 239 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…2effbacked Shopify Rebellion | 24c | 319.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Team Liquid | 72c | 313.18$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -10.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Shopify Rebellion | 25c | 280$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,114 | 35%390 W · 724 L | +14.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Shopify Rebellion | 28c | 257$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Shopify Rebellion | 23c | 246.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 746 | 37.9%283 W · 463 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…e495backed Shopify Rebellion | 22c | 218.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed Team Liquid | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 677 | 63.4%429 W · 248 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Shopify Rebellion | 29c | 149.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Shopify Rebellion | 22c | 149.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 760 | 28.9%220 W · 540 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Team Liquid | 71c | 128.97$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Shopify Rebellion | 28c | 103.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Team Liquid | 78c | 94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 382 | 57.9%221 W · 161 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e3…c540backed Shopify Rebellion | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Team Liquid | 75c | 93.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 288 | 52.1%150 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Team Liquid | 69c | 75.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 595 | 54.1%322 W · 273 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Team Liquid | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 268 | 56.7%152 W · 116 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Team Liquid | 74c | 61.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 444 | 51.8%230 W · 214 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Team Liquid | 73c | 54.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…b135backed Shopify Rebellion | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…144dbacked Team Liquid | 78c | 46.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Team Liquid | 73c | 40.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 134 | 73.9%99 W · 35 L | +13.8wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Team Liquid | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…c227backed Team Liquid | 77c | 30.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 80 | 83.8%67 W · 13 L | +11.2wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Team Liquid | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 612 | 56.2%344 W · 268 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Team Liquid | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 168 | 63.7%107 W · 61 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…e6e6backed Team Liquid | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 29 | 89.7%26 W · 3 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Team Liquid | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Team Liquid | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 332 | 63.6%211 W · 121 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…567dbacked Team Liquid | 73c | 25.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)this page
- Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)Team Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.