Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a4459bafae097bab532776461c7fa1c22d1b23c6e9a4b4937a30e4b4b3f1c44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brentford FCof Newcastle United FC, Brentford FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Newcastle United FC | 26c | 14,498$3,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,718.16 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Brentford FC | 74c | 4,427$3,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151 | 192 | 53.1%102 W · 90 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Brentford FC | 75c | 4,207$3,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.08 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Brentford FC | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Brentford FC | 74c | 2,263$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.38 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0683…dbf3backed Brentford FC | 77c | 1,751$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Newcastle United FC | 25c | 868.04$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.82 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Newcastle United FC | 28c | 788.21$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Brentford FC | 57c | 501.67$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.85 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Brentford FC | 73c | 465.2$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.6 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Newcastle United FC | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…dfb1backed Newcastle United FC | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…1846backed Brentford FC | 77c | 324.75$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Brentford FC | 73c | 299.98$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…22d6backed Brentford FC | 74c | 202.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Newcastle United FC | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Newcastle United FC | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Newcastle United FC | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Newcastle United FC | 10c | 116.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Brentford FC | 73c | 115$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Newcastle United FC | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Brentford FC | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Newcastle United FC | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 408 | 41.9%171 W · 237 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Brentford FC | 71c | 81.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 451 | 42.6%192 W · 259 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Brentford FC | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Brentford FC | 59c | 78.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 210 | 49%103 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Brentford FC | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…b538backed Brentford FC | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Newcastle United FC | 26c | 60.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…54a9backed Newcastle United FC | 27c | 58.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Brentford FC | 74c | 58.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Brentford FC | 74c | 37.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Brentford FC | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 279 | 48%134 W · 145 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Newcastle United FC | 44c | 37.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ec…f93abacked Brentford FC | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Brentford FC | 80c | 23.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Brentford FC | 75c | 21.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…9f62backed Brentford FC | 75c | 21.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed Brentford FC | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Brentford FC | 74c | 15.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Brentford FC (-2.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)Brentford FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.