Premier League · resolved market
Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x203810ac0d8c6f81332a870b16be3daa17eca1b6e112cbf6d8f0e275977c1774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 15c | 7,423$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,339.97 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f0…964ebacked Under | 80c | 6,159$4,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,927.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,239.97 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.99 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 47c | 2,110$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.7 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…d4cebacked Under | 56c | 1,829$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.46 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 1,526$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.51 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 55c | 1,422$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.93 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Under | 47c | 1,250$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…4078backed Over | 44c | 1,176$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.69 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 60c | 1,159$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 52c | 1,081$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62a…aecfbacked Over | 51c | 1,080$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…b9f0backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.62 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 3c | 949.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9a…c308backed Over | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 39c | 769.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.23 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 71c | 630.68$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 19c | 541.47$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.59 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Under | 47c | 527.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 19c | 526.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.54 | 198 | 26.3%52 W · 146 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57c6…fde6backed Over | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 108 | 74.1%80 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 392.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.41 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 48c | 373.73$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.34 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 372.64$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.51 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…ed8fbacked Under | 3c | 349.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1741…6f97backed Under | 67c | 316.28$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…4488backed Under | 65c | 262.52$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 41c | 247.24$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.21 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 17c | 220$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.6 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 49c | 185$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 55c | 183.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.45 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 49c | 163.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 48c | 155$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 41c | 153.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 7c | 147.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 426 | 58%247 W · 179 L | +24.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 409 | 42.1%172 W · 237 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 38c | 131.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…0123backed Over | 19c | 118.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Over | 16c | 110.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…f74cbacked Over | 55c | 100.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…9881backed Under | 55c | 90.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 56c | 83.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 210 | 49%103 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6d…db4fbacked Under | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x046e…7eefbacked Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 37c | 76.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 47c | 67.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 48c | 66.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 257 | 50.2%129 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Over | 49c | 65.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 18c | 56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…8984backed Under | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 375 | 54.9%206 W · 169 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 26c | 48.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 734 | 58.6%430 W · 304 L | +47.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…47eebacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 160 | 60%96 W · 64 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 36.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 320 | 49.1%157 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 39c | 33.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ed…d799backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…9942backed Under | 71c | 27.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Over | 50c | 25.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf5…5fc2backed Over | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +135%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Brentford FC (-2.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Brentford FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)Brentford FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.