NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a735801daf2cf11bed22f05f1411038969eb73d43f02035c1eafa55df16868c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5aa…1449backed Under | 46c | 37,218$17,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,253.36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 53c | 34,527$18,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,227.52 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 30,871$14,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,509.52 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 12,395$6,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,825.41 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 52c | 12,193$6,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,852.78 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 47c | 12,000$5,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,639.98 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 10,209$5,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900.32 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 47c | 6,000$2,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,819.98 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba81…dc35backed Over | 62c | 4,961$3,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.18 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 255 | 52.5%134 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 1,794$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.74 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Over | 53c | 1,619$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.87 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Over | 53c | 1,397$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.27 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 53c | 1,283$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.01 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Over | 53c | 1,131$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.57 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 53c | 1,049$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.15 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…3531backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 53c | 913.34$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.27 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 48c | 875.1$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.05 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 52c | 802.45$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.18 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 53c | 801.33$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.67 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964f…ca58backed Under | 33c | 726.5$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 64c | 652.45$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.88 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 51c | 499.98$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.99 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 47c | 448$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.56 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 47c | 443.99$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.68 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 53c | 407$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.29 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 67c | 309.45$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 52c | 290$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.42 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Under | 48c | 288.62$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.54 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 53c | 212.76$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 66c | 209.59$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Under | 48c | 207.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 47c | 207.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 162 | 54.9%89 W · 73 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 56c | 156.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 74c | 147.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…e2afbacked Over | 53c | 130.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 114.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a6abacked Under | 47c | 100.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Under | 48c | 90.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…2f45backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 51c | 77.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 48c | 76.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Over | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 52c | 56.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…8d40backed Under | 47c | 44.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Under | 47c | 44.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…a982backed Under | 49c | 43.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 60c | 41.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 42c | 34.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…f4e4backed Under | 48c | 33.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Under | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 53c | 27.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…761cbacked Under | 47c | 21.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 260 | 59.6%155 W · 105 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 53c | 19.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5this page
- Avalanche vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.