TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
OGof Team Falcons, OG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$463,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$509,571

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $463,334 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 274 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe59f…0d08backed OG25c59,909$15,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,715.6621155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed OG26c25,099$6,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,573.1747646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Team Falcons75c18,004$13,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,442.712348%59 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked OG26c15,506$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,506.0189741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons74c14,865$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked OG23c14,000$3,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,780.0980256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fff…265cbacked Team Falcons68c14,000$9,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,464.43234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-24.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked OG32c10,572$3,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,165.9232549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Team Falcons77c10,000$7,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,699.9913960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked OG27c8,846$2,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,439.431,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed OG46c6,994$3,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,743.3830667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked OG21c6,329$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,006.4131936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Team Falcons74c6,000$4,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,44011953.8%64 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed OG25c6,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.9930452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Team Falcons8c5,942$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.077733.8%26 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-35.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked OG15c5,307$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,510.822031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed OG72c4,853$3,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.9345352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Falcons73c4,800$3,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,513.8679859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde24…4dedbacked OG54c4,471$2,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,077.419853%105 W · 93 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Falcons77c4,319$3,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,318.5171143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Falcons74c4,259$3,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,146.4969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Team Falcons73c3,838$2,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,801.7429042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons75c3,782$2,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,822.261,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Falcons52c3,278$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.231,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked OG46c3,264$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.9212141.3%50 W · 71 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Team Falcons72c3,172$2,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,285.3648057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed OG40c3,171$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,901.7547748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed OG44c3,001$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,671.2847650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked OG29c3,000$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.981,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Team Falcons77c2,512$1,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.0353758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons76c2,399$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,814.971,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Falcons79c2,204$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.268649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed Team Falcons66c2,200$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45614943.6%65 W · 84 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed OG45c2,139$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.747844.9%35 W · 43 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked OG24c2,052$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.7861456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed OG30c1,832$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.7337745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed Team Falcons72c1,827$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.5414136.9%52 W · 89 L-13.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Team Falcons74c1,759$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.3830357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed OG28c1,753$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.9828347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed OG2c1,664$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,635.193323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Falcons39c1,657$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.3469132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Team Falcons34c1,603$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55029240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Falcons72c1,569$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.995342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8840…f51abacked Team Falcons1c1,543$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.86205%1 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked OG55c1,506$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.1423561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Team Falcons74c1,466$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.7556343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons75c1,418$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.3189749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team Falcons46c1,402$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.5366545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2931…7b81backed OG38c1,393$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.1618660.8%113 W · 73 L+12.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed OG24c1,346$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.6745457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked OG17c1,300$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.692056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Falcons52c1,294$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.5789238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf346…1b8ebacked OG23c1,285$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.5622438.8%87 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad42…6031backed Team Falcons55c1,224$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.378648.8%42 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…3a0dbacked Team Falcons74c1,200$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8882035%7 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed OG65c1,167$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.1334442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2929…1dd0backed OG18c1,143$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.7116553.3%88 W · 77 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x270c…f66fbacked OG5c1,137$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.55175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57f1…5ecfbacked Team Falcons74c1,135$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.96642.4%28 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4652…6343backed Team Falcons75c1,038$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.353938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed OG18c1,024$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.9288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed OG52c1,000$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.1331547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5bc…a013backed Team Falcons70c1,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7006342.9%27 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed OG28c953.08$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.6330356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed OG73c950.24$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.77350.7%37 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3167…32a2backed OG34c910.77$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.4612151.2%62 W · 59 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Falcons38c905.11$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.2389938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed OG15c900$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76515050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked Team Falcons59c896.04$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.9621558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons74c892.91$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.7579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed OG15c800$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68018143.6%79 W · 102 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Team Falcons78c800$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62427060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed OG62c797.75$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.2720767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked Team Falcons70c788.83$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.1317965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa20d…6ba4backed OG27c740.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.7414751%75 W · 72 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…7d37backed OG17c730.99$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.0420233.2%67 W · 135 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed OG28c726.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.2218152.5%95 W · 86 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed OG29c722.87$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.2891553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Falcons76c722.5$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.750749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed OG46c705.28$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.432,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x499f…b72bbacked OG31c659.97$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.088035%28 W · 52 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Team Falcons43c644.07$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.3650850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Team Falcons45c628.05$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.3317330.1%52 W · 121 L-16.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Team Falcons17c601.52$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.452046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbd…c385backed Team Falcons68c584.58$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40022665%147 W · 79 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f42…1f72backed Team Falcons70c574.62$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.2331865.1%207 W · 111 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4078…a7f7backed Team Falcons79c569.31$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.044040%16 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf072…d897backed OG41c569.01$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.0112246.7%57 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd943…8676backed OG46c530.55$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.417839.7%31 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed OG32c521.44$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.7424255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked Team Falcons32c516.87$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7211445.6%52 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked OG34c500$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.3528251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9417…8440backed OG15c500$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.19455.3%52 W · 42 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3e3b…be27backed OG26c500$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37021047.6%100 W · 110 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x749f…6be1backed OG30c500$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3508551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed OG35c494.04$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.3819251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed OG26c441.41$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.620642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37a8…8b4dbacked Team Falcons69c415.94$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28715957.9%92 W · 67 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed OG20c387.88$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.6410651.9%55 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked OG35c380.78$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.7848843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.