South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4af3ee396c632778cbfa28e1da767ca2f5376f1351b581d2e8b4597573643986
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 70c | 3,697$2,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.45 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 52c | 3,161$1,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628.85 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 3,097$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.39 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bab…cf38backed No | 70c | 2,307$1,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 2,263$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.26 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 71c | 1,640$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.6 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 71c | 1,610$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.16 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 41c | 1,255$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.65 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 28c | 1,100$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.99 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…a7c0backed Yes | 80c | 911.31$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 30c | 886$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.8 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Yes | 77c | 788.61$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…2d79backed Yes | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 61c | 716.61$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.65 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 30c | 600.05$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.02 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…dacebacked Yes | 9c | 500.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 25c | 453.14$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 30c | 427.4$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.22 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 35c | 407.5$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.85 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 31c | 399.85$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.55 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e9…6c98backed No | 71c | 399.83$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 337.49$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.47 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 33c | 330$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 50c | 325$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.06 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 48c | 324.82$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.92 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…abffbacked Yes | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 21c | 268.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.92 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Yes | 30c | 264.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…9d2dbacked No | 64c | 261.62$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.02 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 30c | 208.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…9815backed Yes | 31c | 180.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 27c | 172$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 73c | 146$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 30c | 142.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 63c | 115.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed6…ea84backed Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 30c | 111.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 29c | 109.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x313c…61d9backed Yes | 31c | 80.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Yes | 30c | 79.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6b01backed Yes | 63c | 79.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 29c | 75.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…9190backed Yes | 42c | 71.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 65c | 64.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdb…75dbbacked Yes | 31c | 64.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 42c | 62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 67c | 57.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…8ad7backed Yes | 30c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 58c | 49.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f9…e5f0backed Yes | 30c | 46.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…80f6backed Yes | 31c | 46.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 29c | 38.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 35c | 36.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed No | 60c | 33.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 39c | 32.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…a563backed No | 57c | 31.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6760…3ad4backed Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…d27abacked Yes | 77c | 27.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd641…1ba1backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2444…bdd7backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…2a62backed No | 70c | 20.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b4…bd90backed No | 72c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…b3a8backed No | 71c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb809…c4e5backed No | 72c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-02-12?Yes won
- Will Santos FC win on 2026-02-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.