Earnings · resolved market
Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b285f64604f6c3632bff92503ad9cd0f7fb1a1550a0353a4f1963b331896df3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 11c | 6,362$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.82 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 33c | 5,380$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.6 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfd…d183backed Yes | 66c | 5,223$3,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,810$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.88 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 29c | 1,586$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.26 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 8c | 1,181$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 38c | 1,028$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.66 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 37c | 903.19$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.9 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 59c | 846.94$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.24 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5820…83f8backed No | 79c | 636.63$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 570.41$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.76 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 64c | 485.91$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked No | 51c | 484$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.54 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked Yes | 28c | 438.25$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.9 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 70c | 432.86$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed No | 79c | 378.12$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 10c | 363$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…7c6dbacked No | 74c | 336$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 72c | 322.21$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.53 | 157 | 65%102 W · 55 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 43c | 271.09$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.52 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 26c | 269.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.46 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…7b24backed No | 78c | 259.97$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.1wins | -0.32per pick | 63cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 242.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.21 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed No | 72c | 240$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.74 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 45c | 221.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.54 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 33c | 214.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.02 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 186.67$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.71 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 28c | 179.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.83 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked No | 75c | 167.15$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed Yes | 36c | 152.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.72 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 74c | 149.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.31 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…d2f4backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 25c | 137.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…215fbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed No | 77c | 130.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811d…371bbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 35c | 121.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed No | 77c | 118.75$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…66a6backed No | 80c | 109.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 13c | 109$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…b3d2backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 30c | 99.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 27c | 94.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed Yes | 29c | 89.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 21c | 89.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 23c | 86.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 29c | 82.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 58c | 82.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 38c | 79.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 25c | 78.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b30…2209backed No | 28c | 76.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked No | 37c | 75.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb175…b65cbacked Yes | 18c | 71.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22d…4bfabacked No | 78c | 70.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…e83ebacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…ca6cbacked Yes | 32c | 63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 98 | 66.3%65 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ad…4363backed No | 70c | 58.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 29c | 54.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…687ebacked No | 73c | 52.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…7cbebacked No | 41c | 49.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 65c | 43.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc51…2bedbacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…4e5abacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed No | 78c | 33.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ae…0e0ebacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591b…807cbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4b…f8d4backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…2aaebacked No | 68c | 27.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…fe6abacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…12fabacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe68f…0049backed No | 79c | 27.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe380…654abacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…75dabacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…36b5backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1109…d2f0backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…2560backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…14d4backed No | 80c | 25.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked No | 80c | 25.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3029…0ab1backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3201backed No | 79c | 23.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf99…ce6abacked Yes | 63c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…7846backed No | 79c | 23.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…d8d1backed No | 80c | 22.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb159…d8c4backed No | 79c | 22.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…8169backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x922c…7b30backed No | 79c | 20.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc841…77d3backed No | 79c | 20.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…766cbacked No | 79c | 20.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.