Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b959bd9bc39d1321bc264d21815082d73fd8176e1218948651ead19001c2ff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 600$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 373.24$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 53c | 354.49$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.59 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 290.57$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 10c | 250.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 36c | 210.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.95 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 29c | 190$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.06 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 171.39$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 160$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 60c | 159.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 132.79$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 94.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 32c | 91.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 79c | 90.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 90.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 29c | 85.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 71c | 81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 43c | 80.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 80.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 76.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 47c | 76.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 70.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 30c | 68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 39c | 67.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 70c | 65.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 33c | 64.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 64.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 59.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 46c | 58.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 46.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 28c | 36.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 31.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 60c | 29.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 21.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 61c | 18.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.