Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bf93acf1ce6447706f3034d2cc852426a98deba71d9b665da340bc70eac16f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, PARIVISION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $218,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $293,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked PARIVISION | 50c | 36,916$18,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,344.99 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked Aurora | 76c | 32,674$24,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,927.48 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 72cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora | 49c | 15,555$7,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,933.05 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 50c | 8,459$4,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,270.7 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 52c | 6,622$3,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,154.4 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 49c | 5,306$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.12 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…94bfbacked PARIVISION | 40c | 5,090$2,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,034.4 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…06c4backed PARIVISION | 62c | 4,720$2,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,916.9 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed PARIVISION | 49c | 4,492$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,194.51 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked PARIVISION | 54c | 4,137$2,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,216.35 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 56c | 3,935$2,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.69 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION | 23c | 2,762$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.39 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked Aurora | 50c | 2,154$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.49 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…12bdbacked Aurora | 54c | 2,032$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.42 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed PARIVISION | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked Aurora | 46c | 1,912$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.91 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed PARIVISION | 56c | 1,800$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 56c | 1,794$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.86 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked PARIVISION | 57c | 1,763$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.63 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…3de6backed Aurora | 48c | 1,745$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.53 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora | 63c | 1,399$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.93 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed PARIVISION | 10c | 1,300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…e75fbacked PARIVISION | 10c | 1,287$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.39 | 137 | 32.8%45 W · 92 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed PARIVISION | 45c | 1,234$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.4 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e0…0d61backed Aurora | 25c | 1,000$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed PARIVISION | 7c | 740.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed PARIVISION | 35c | 700.54$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.19 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…dc5abacked Aurora | 24c | 700$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.45per pick | 25cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd12…5503backed Aurora | 24c | 700$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +264.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Aurora | 46c | 652.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.83 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed PARIVISION | 45c | 620$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.4 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked PARIVISION | 52c | 571.67$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.92 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac5d…d45fbacked PARIVISION | 23c | 550$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked PARIVISION | 51c | 519.61$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed PARIVISION | 39c | 514.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION | 39c | 509.79$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.29 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Aurora | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed PARIVISION | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed PARIVISION | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3260…85ddbacked PARIVISION | 30c | 500$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Aurora | 67c | 448.64$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.64 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked PARIVISION | 48c | 447.43$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.77 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed PARIVISION | 42c | 441.79$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.59 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked PARIVISION | 46c | 440$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed PARIVISION | 39c | 435.75$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…c639backed PARIVISION | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Aurora | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…fc83backed PARIVISION | 47c | 389.97$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.49 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…eca9backed PARIVISION | 53c | 363.71$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked PARIVISION | 51c | 358.82$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 68c | 345.13$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed PARIVISION | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed PARIVISION | 19c | 299.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Aurora | 51c | 295.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.54 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked PARIVISION | 26c | 268.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed PARIVISION | 49c | 263.68$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Aurora | 52c | 253.85$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Aurora | 59c | 252.09$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.77 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…6f4dbacked PARIVISION | 40c | 235$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…6345backed Aurora | 67c | 228.73$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…db99backed PARIVISION | 49c | 211.72$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 363 | 43.3%157 W · 206 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Aurora | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…7a53backed PARIVISION | 49c | 207.76$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora | 65c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed PARIVISION | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed PARIVISION | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…71c5backed Aurora | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7f…c092backed Aurora | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked PARIVISION | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Aurora | 61c | 196.51$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4da1…e6dfbacked PARIVISION | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PARIVISION | 33c | 187.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Aurora | 58c | 185.44$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78db…4d37backed PARIVISION | 44c | 183.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…15d3backed PARIVISION | 28c | 180.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION | 24c | 158.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f03…7551backed PARIVISION | 52c | 157.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Aurora | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…e194backed PARIVISION | 12c | 149.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Aurora | 65c | 130.77$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -7.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -30%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Aurora | 65c | 127.22$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed PARIVISION | 46c | 121.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…6960backed Aurora | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 49c | 107.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…4611backed PARIVISION | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…3499backed Aurora | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…1f19backed Aurora | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed PARIVISION | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Aurora | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked PARIVISION | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked PARIVISION | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked PARIVISION | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked PARIVISION | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…d83bbacked Aurora | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed PARIVISION | 47c | 98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…6de8backed PARIVISION | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed Aurora | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora | 54c | 93.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2Aurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)Aurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.