TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$218,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$293,840

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,845 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked PARIVISION50c36,916$18,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,344.9955157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Aurora76c32,674$24,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,927.485757.9%33 W · 24 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick72cpaid-22.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora49c15,555$7,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,933.0532854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Aurora50c8,459$4,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,270.766662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora52c6,622$3,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,154.41,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora49c5,306$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,706.1296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked PARIVISION40c5,090$2,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,034.413558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed PARIVISION62c4,720$2,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,916.92828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed PARIVISION49c4,492$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,194.5142650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked PARIVISION54c4,137$2,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,216.3520159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora56c3,935$2,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.692,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION23c2,762$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.391,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Aurora50c2,154$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.4916248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked Aurora54c2,032$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.4218156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed PARIVISION50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Aurora46c1,912$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.9133845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed PARIVISION56c1,800$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00812851.6%66 W · 62 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Aurora56c1,794$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.8654445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked PARIVISION57c1,763$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.6317546.9%82 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Aurora48c1,745$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.5310741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora63c1,399$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.9360349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed PARIVISION10c1,300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.55942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked PARIVISION10c1,287$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3913732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed PARIVISION45c1,234$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.413455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf7e0…0d61backed Aurora25c1,000$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7511520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed PARIVISION7c740.4$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8380443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed PARIVISION35c700.54$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.1910334%35 W · 68 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0267…dc5abacked Aurora24c700$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5321070%7 W · 3 L+4.5wins+0.45per pick25cpaid+163.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xbd12…5503backed Aurora24c700$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5324100%4 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+264.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Aurora46c652.83$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.831,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed PARIVISION45c620$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.416821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked PARIVISION52c571.67$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.928854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac5d…d45fbacked PARIVISION23c550$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.59535.8%34 W · 61 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked PARIVISION51c519.61$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26555251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed PARIVISION39c514.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20025457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION39c509.79$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.291,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Aurora50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25058744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed PARIVISION3c500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.756132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed PARIVISION52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3260…85ddbacked PARIVISION30c500$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516454.7%35 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Aurora67c448.64$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.6421264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked PARIVISION48c447.43$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.7729548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed PARIVISION42c441.79$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.5933645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked PARIVISION46c440$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.488166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed PARIVISION39c435.75$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17215345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ebc…c639backed PARIVISION49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Aurora49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1664149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a5…fc83backed PARIVISION47c389.97$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.495446.3%25 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b0e…eca9backed PARIVISION53c363.71$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1914461.4%27 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked PARIVISION51c358.82$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18353844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora68c345.13$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.82,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed PARIVISION47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14161548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed PARIVISION19c299.69$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6148352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Aurora51c295.54$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.5426453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked PARIVISION26c268.73$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5177458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed PARIVISION49c263.68$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.256848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed Aurora52c253.85$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.8516160.2%97 W · 64 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Aurora59c252.09$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.7745061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x498c…6f4dbacked PARIVISION40c235$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7387…6345backed Aurora67c228.73$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.7317955.3%99 W · 80 L+0.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed PARIVISION49c211.72$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7536343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Aurora71c211.27$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2721346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed PARIVISION49c207.76$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110260.8%62 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora65c200$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5959250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed PARIVISION11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed PARIVISION49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7431545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfaa4…71c5backed Aurora42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1166245.2%28 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb7f…c092backed Aurora20c200$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked PARIVISION49c200$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.318952.9%100 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Aurora61c196.51$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4734063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4da1…e6dfbacked PARIVISION52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006735.8%24 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PARIVISION33c187.47$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.862,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Aurora58c185.44$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6387645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78db…4d37backed PARIVISION44c183.18$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806944.9%31 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc651…15d3backed PARIVISION28c180.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION24c158.45$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7499844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f03…7551backed PARIVISION52c157.56$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.932560%15 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Aurora65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5237754.9%207 W · 170 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58c9…e194backed PARIVISION12c149.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.114035%14 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Aurora65c130.77$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.775046%23 W · 27 L-7.7wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-30%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Aurora65c127.22$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0626661.7%164 W · 102 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed PARIVISION46c121.89$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0980742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7b0…6960backed Aurora68c110$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358055%44 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Aurora49c107.9$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.621,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb87…4611backed PARIVISION49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506759.7%40 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe64b…3499backed Aurora54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465052%26 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafa3…1f19backed Aurora25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed PARIVISION39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3952243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Aurora51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4926957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1532…1dadbacked PARIVISION38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.522654.4%123 W · 103 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked PARIVISION49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4932951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4853757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked PARIVISION40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4045052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked PARIVISION49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2592056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x055a…d83bbacked Aurora51c99.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.993951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed PARIVISION47c98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6236051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2806…6de8backed PARIVISION52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011344.2%50 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bef…be32backed Aurora53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3413449.3%66 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora54c93.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1572154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.