TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$121,797

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,061 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6304…e570backed Aurora52c8,958$4,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,336.6227645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x216f…03bbbacked Aurora52c8,643$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,142.584652.2%24 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Aurora68c8,600$5,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,72812061.7%74 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked PARIVISION49c7,797$3,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,844.2119943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Aurora50c7,793$3,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,868.7718452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed PARIVISION44c7,361$3,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,21714840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed PARIVISION48c7,118$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,419.5432854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Aurora51c5,000$2,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,469.9911839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb84a…055dbacked PARIVISION49c4,378$2,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,145.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed PARIVISION52c3,637$1,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,882.2919148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked PARIVISION25c3,353$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.5514121.3%30 W · 111 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x12c0…692bbacked Aurora51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora65c2,913$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.912,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked PARIVISION31c2,704$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.1930138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Aurora48c2,359$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.219147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed PARIVISION48c2,072$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.62633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed PARIVISION49c2,067$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.546445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f99…f4d5backed PARIVISION49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-51%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked PARIVISION50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011955.5%66 W · 53 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora48c2,000$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Aurora63c1,716$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.0213455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed PARIVISION48c1,696$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8144245.2%19 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked PARIVISION22c1,515$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.1586949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed PARIVISION47c1,390$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.2317651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION30c1,242$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.591,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora63c1,232$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.81,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora51c1,217$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.4557455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4da1…e6dfbacked PARIVISION51c1,168$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.186735.8%24 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed PARIVISION43c1,166$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.839444.7%42 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed PARIVISION49c1,112$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.512755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked PARIVISION29c1,034$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30053844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…89d0backed Aurora50c1,000$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.034967.3%33 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Aurora51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4909557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed PARIVISION48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48018550.8%94 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Aurora52c999.99$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48013441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora71c999.99$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29085851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed PARIVISION49c979$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.715850%29 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Aurora61c897.89$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.9262650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed PARIVISION48c893.75$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4293450%17 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed PARIVISION27c879$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.2219242.7%82 W · 110 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed PARIVISION51c805.75$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.9317146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Aurora49c732.65$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.658957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed PARIVISION50c700.04$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3504055%22 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Aurora50c682.75$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.9122945.9%105 W · 124 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora66c637$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.721,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed PARIVISION49c635.69$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.3380742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed PARIVISION40c631.22$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.5241050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed PARIVISION51c588.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked PARIVISION49c551.02$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2708447.6%40 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51a8…0e31backed Aurora75c533.55$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.55366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Aurora67c530.48$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.610741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Aurora48c499.99$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26022954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Aurora48c484.8$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.111253.6%60 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed PARIVISION41c474.43$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2236054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked PARIVISION50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20046240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb87…4611backed PARIVISION51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006759.7%40 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed PARIVISION49c379.96$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.1833541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…c864backed PARIVISION50c377.58$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.796240.3%25 W · 37 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked PARIVISION26c334$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3379341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed PARIVISION49c332.26$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.815565.5%36 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aurora51c328.87$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.5560542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Aurora51c317.3$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.8297142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Aurora49c301$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.517357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Aurora48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15673743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5554…98f9backed PARIVISION51c296.69$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506066.7%40 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed PARIVISION51c292.08$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9615946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Aurora49c287.68$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.7287645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9634…bd44backed Aurora53c286.87$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.031346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Aurora50c286.32$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.1667853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Aurora51c272.55$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.5541248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION31c247.14$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.572,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Aurora67c230.69$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4877256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed PARIVISION50c230$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1156936.2%25 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed PARIVISION50c226.99$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.55244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed PARIVISION37c215.55$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5712720.5%26 W · 101 L-22.6wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-62.9%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed PARIVISION49c214.16$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8349…c99dbacked PARIVISION48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7646…b2a1backed PARIVISION29c207.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed PARIVISION50c207.14$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1429245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Aurora51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9814259.9%85 W · 57 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Aurora52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9620838.9%81 W · 127 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora51c199.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9834154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked PARIVISION49c199.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9921045.7%96 W · 114 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed Aurora51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0816641.6%69 W · 97 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33a8…2a71backed Aurora51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.084355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b05…b133backed Aurora51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0811254.5%61 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked PARIVISION50c191$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.561057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe341…354dbacked Aurora51c187.22$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.743764.9%24 W · 13 L+5.8wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Aurora48c182.68$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9948352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed PARIVISION21c179.31$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2437832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed PARIVISION28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502532%8 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked PARIVISION40c175$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.445549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed PARIVISION45c165$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6553634%182 W · 354 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed PARIVISION48c157.5$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7620350.7%103 W · 100 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b30…5bf9backed Aurora52c155.14$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.146666.7%44 W · 22 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x636a…18fdbacked Aurora73c154.99$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.851668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+52%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed PARIVISION24c153.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4813827.5%38 W · 100 L-15.0wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-50.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc69e…e918backed PARIVISION50c153.14$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed PARIVISION31c151.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.877941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed PARIVISION49c151.16$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.075648.2%27 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.