TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$227,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$277,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,536 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora52c46,473$24,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,452.5355157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION36c15,638$5,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,589.092,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora44c9,174$4,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,146.5996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed PARIVISION40c8,364$3,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,320.510741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked PARIVISION55c8,056$4,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,468.6913558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked PARIVISION40c8,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20014515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION44c7,501$3,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,323.341,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Aurora47c4,255$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.3120159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked PARIVISION19c4,133$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80033845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed PARIVISION59c4,069$2,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,398.972828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked PARIVISION36c3,752$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.61,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Aurora48c3,702$1,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,909.9354445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora43c3,017$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,721.141,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed PARIVISION48c2,600$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.6280443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Aurora46c2,049$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.1816821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PARIVISION66c2,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed PARIVISION53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fbb…39dabacked PARIVISION17c1,710$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.534346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed PARIVISION56c1,100$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61660349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed PARIVISION38c1,090$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.0766662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed PARIVISION51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51055751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Aurora47c999.98$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.9922954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7272…1b61backed PARIVISION3c998.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.891216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-75.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked PARIVISION52c941.62$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49053844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed PARIVISION65c921.96$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60025457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Aurora36c841.02$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.021,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked PARIVISION24c645$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.0892056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32555251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed PARIVISION57c611.35$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.8813455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed PARIVISION46c601.54$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.0261548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4a1…7774backed PARIVISION52c580.77$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed PARIVISION52c577.99$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.5571454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked PARIVISION51c576.99$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.3785851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION55c564.69$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.361,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc651…15d3backed PARIVISION51c490.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed PARIVISION65c468.99$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.7859250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed PARIVISION51c463.01$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.2756848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed PARIVISION52c452.74$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.4258744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked PARIVISION53c430$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.988166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x13e4…8eadbacked Aurora47c426.09$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…98abbacked PARIVISION7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2815546.5%72 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Aurora33c395.96$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.051,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3260…85ddbacked Aurora36c379.19$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.956454.7%35 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1318…0af2backed Aurora30c333$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.117633.5%59 W · 117 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Aurora9c310$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.134027.5%11 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Aurora49c307.18$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1826453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed PARIVISION66c303.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked Aurora45c302$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.8413732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed PARIVISION18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018444.6%82 W · 102 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x83a0…12cabacked Aurora49c267.53$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.494757.4%27 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed PARIVISION20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011043.6%48 W · 62 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Aurora14c246$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.2942145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Aurora56c240$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2745061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed PARIVISION57c210$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.745046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed PARIVISION24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3358152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b84…48e3backed Aurora12c201.57$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.383050%15 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c9…e194backed PARIVISION58c197.59$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.154035%14 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x78db…4d37backed PARIVISION56c154.43$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.486944.9%31 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f03…7551backed PARIVISION69c148.81$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.372560%15 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x899e…0863backed Aurora69c145.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1626454.5%144 W · 120 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Aurora38c141.67$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.552649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x055a…d83bbacked PARIVISION53c139.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.23951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9634…bd44backed PARIVISION66c122.9$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.111346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe497…5403backed Aurora59c121.11$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.282254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed PARIVISION19c118.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7348352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1172154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c9…6b8bbacked Aurora19c109.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8810950.5%55 W · 54 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked PARIVISION53c101.37$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4986949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked PARIVISION49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Aurora44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6887645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Aurora51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4997142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1532…1dadbacked PARIVISION70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7022654.4%123 W · 103 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed PARIVISION43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4353634%182 W · 354 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ebd…2c43backed PARIVISION52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504245.2%19 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Aurora68c96$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.728040%32 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed PARIVISION67c87.93$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5219664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Aurora51c87.88$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8859556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ba…9fecbacked Aurora48c83.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3310546.7%49 W · 56 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2806…6de8backed PARIVISION60c80$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4811344.2%50 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf4…7b57backed PARIVISION15c79.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.088960.7%54 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4a1…9c88backed PARIVISION14c79.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.29520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf94…6ee5backed PARIVISION33c76.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.05966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0abe…ad59backed PARIVISION52c72.45$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0386…2b1abacked PARIVISION21c71.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9930543%131 W · 174 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+52.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed PARIVISION19c66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3647951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f1e…5a2abacked PARIVISION60c62.61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.293158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7484…de96backed Aurora41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.49651%49 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f5d…3742backed PARIVISION67c59.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33a8…2a71backed PARIVISION66c59.09$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d31…07b0backed PARIVISION35c58.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3425255.2%139 W · 113 L+1.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387e…ca5dbacked PARIVISION67c57.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8311857.6%68 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed PARIVISION24c51.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3572637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x70da…68dbbacked Aurora47c50.94$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc79…f26cbacked PARIVISION52c50.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.251526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5524…2f3cbacked Aurora47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.56844.1%30 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe866…1a70backed PARIVISION68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3411057.3%63 W · 47 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed PARIVISION63c49.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4326957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed PARIVISION45c46.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0933645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc4…748ebacked Aurora45c44.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.64753.2%25 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.