NFL · resolved market
Cowboys vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 25.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cc9d288451a3a5402bc9e0fa627e5a5f810efde93fd0be2db7c682c6820fc84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 47c | 169$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Under | 47c | 164$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Under | 48c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Over | 53c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Over | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…27babacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Over | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 25.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Cowboys won
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)Cowboys won
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)Cowboys won
- Cowboys vs. CommandersCowboys won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: 1H MoneylineCowboys won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: O/U 48.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Cowboys (-8.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Cowboys (-9.5)Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.