NFL · resolved market
Spread: Cowboys (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x646658b7ffc67d22ad07f2570073a25670f979439831a2ae8be6dd4df6ea3c6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Cowboys, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $371,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $372,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $371,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Commanders | 52c | 205,388$107,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98,269.01 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Cowboys | 47c | 129,150$60,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,700.49 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cowboys | 48c | 104,709$50,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,213.93 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Commanders | 52c | 99,999$51,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,999.38 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Cowboys | 49c | 49,073$24,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,046 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cowboys | 53c | 18,300$9,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,681.32 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Commanders | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.98 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Cowboys | 48c | 9,487$4,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,555.42 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cowboys | 47c | 5,303$2,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,492.28 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Commanders | 52c | 4,760$2,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264.96 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Cowboys | 47c | 3,840$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,804.79 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…ca73backed Cowboys | 48c | 1,487$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.89 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…6282backed Cowboys | 50c | 1,313$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Cowboys | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Commanders | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Cowboys | 47c | 925.11$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cowboys | 59c | 810$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.15 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Commanders | 51c | 799.94$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.97 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cowboys | 51c | 757.3$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.68 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Commanders | 25c | 747.61$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.71 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Commanders | 54c | 671.52$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.9 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Commanders | 53c | 657.1$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.27 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Cowboys | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8021…0da8backed Cowboys | 48c | 615.62$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.5 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Commanders | 38c | 506.99$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.89 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…8c00backed Cowboys | 47c | 501.61$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Cowboys | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Cowboys | 47c | 496.23$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…0458backed Cowboys | 48c | 446.07$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Cowboys | 75c | 333.32$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Commanders | 30c | 296.66$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.66 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Commanders | 52c | 240.76$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.76 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked Commanders | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0266…2957backed Cowboys | 74c | 200$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Commanders | 54c | 183.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Commanders | 53c | 169.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b33…8c31backed Commanders | 52c | 155.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Commanders | 51c | 149.73$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Commanders | 54c | 148.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed Cowboys | 47c | 129.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…29c2backed Cowboys | 47c | 128.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…b176backed Cowboys | 75c | 124.51$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…5b9cbacked Cowboys | 48c | 123.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Cowboys | 53c | 121.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7473…935bbacked Cowboys | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Cowboys | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Cowboys | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d26…ecf2backed Cowboys | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Commanders | 46c | 77.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Commanders | 53c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…5389backed Cowboys | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…94febacked Commanders | 48c | 57.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Commanders | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Commanders | 53c | 50.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Cowboys | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Cowboys | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Commanders | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…ad89backed Cowboys | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d96…a9d9backed Cowboys | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…6e74backed Commanders | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Commanders | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cowboys | 50c | 39.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…6564backed Commanders | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…35cbbacked Commanders | 48c | 33.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Cowboys | 50c | 30.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbc…d46fbacked Commanders | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe72e…b33dbacked Commanders | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Commanders | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Cowboys | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Commanders | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cowboys (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Cowboys won
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)Cowboys won
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)Cowboys won
- Cowboys vs. CommandersCowboys won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: 1H MoneylineCowboys won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 25.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: O/U 48.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Cowboys (-8.5)Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.