NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58ec00bcd629c5b8288804d09043597b676dabcf510b11f78294a552d57d11a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cowboysof Cowboys, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Cowboys | 60c | 624$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.6 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Commanders | 40c | 582.33$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.93 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Commanders | 41c | 133$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Commanders | 41c | 129$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Commanders | 41c | 127$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Commanders | 46c | 121.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Commanders | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Commanders | 40c | 107$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Commanders | 40c | 107$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Commanders | 40c | 92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Commanders | 40c | 84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…d0c8backed Cowboys | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Commanders | 40c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Commanders | 40c | 59.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Commanders | 40c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Commanders | 40c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Cowboys | 59c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Commanders | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Commanders | 40c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…61d1backed Commanders | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Cowboys | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Commanders | 40c | 49.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Commanders | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Commanders | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Commanders | 41c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Commanders | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Cowboys | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed Cowboys | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Cowboys | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Commanders | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Cowboys | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Cowboys | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Commanders | 40c | 30.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Cowboys | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Cowboys | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Cowboys | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Cowboys | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Cowboys | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Cowboys | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Cowboys | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Cowboys | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Cowboys | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Cowboys | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Cowboys | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Cowboys | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Cowboys | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Cowboys | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Cowboys | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Cowboys | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Cowboys | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Cowboys | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Cowboys | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Cowboys | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Cowboys | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cccebacked Cowboys | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Cowboys | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Cowboys | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Cowboys | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked Cowboys | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Cowboys | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Cowboys | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Cowboys | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed Cowboys | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Cowboys | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Cowboys | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Cowboys | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Cowboys | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…bd5cbacked Cowboys | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Cowboys | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Cowboys | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 58cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Cowboys | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f4…4763backed Cowboys | 60c | 16.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)Cowboys won
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)Cowboys won
- Cowboys vs. CommandersCowboys won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: 1H MoneylineCowboys won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 25.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: O/U 48.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Commanders: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Cowboys (-8.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Cowboys (-9.5)Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.