NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Spurs: O/U 243.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dc507a882294d8b25586ea022fb5e3efe299b3212f9d41908d96cfff279e593
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 45c | 4,678$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,592.42 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc0…ea64backed Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc8…0017backed Over | 49c | 2,985$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…b08bbacked Over | 52c | 1,990$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.16 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 1,786$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 55c | 1,422$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.22 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 56c | 1,414$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.79 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 1,249$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.02 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b5…2849backed Under | 51c | 1,084$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc555…8799backed Under | 51c | 1,084$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…4b50backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…dbbebacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1e…c6d3backed Under | 51c | 985.01$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 56c | 983.15$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.88 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…9992backed Over | 51c | 924$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.24 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed9…bd58backed Under | 51c | 886.51$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec1…44dcbacked Under | 51c | 886.51$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Under | 68c | 725.69$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.22 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…5443backed Over | 58c | 679.58$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.15 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9175…bd29backed Over | 52c | 436.86$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.17 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 56c | 329.79$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.06 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 52c | 305.95$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 44c | 256.01$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.1 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 8c | 244.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596b…e891backed Over | 59c | 239.71$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 48c | 234.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.33 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 213.7$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…0c83backed Over | 50c | 203.27$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 193 | 46.1%89 W · 104 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 73c | 187.41$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.26 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 44c | 178.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Over | 56c | 175.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 44c | 158.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 57c | 157.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 41c | 145$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 56c | 112.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed Under | 44c | 111.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…2464backed Under | 53c | 111.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 111.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 111$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 53c | 97.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 51c | 96.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 47c | 92.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Over | 51c | 88.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 481 | 52%250 W · 231 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 51c | 85.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 45c | 76.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 55c | 66.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 54c | 65.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Over | 53c | 62.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…1b45backed Under | 49c | 59.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 222 | 49.5%110 W · 112 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 53c | 59.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 52c | 57.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Over | 71c | 52.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 52c | 50.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 55c | 49.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 76c | 47.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Over | 53c | 46.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…cf1dbacked Under | 48c | 45.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…1a96backed Under | 48c | 44.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 73c | 43.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2d…cd74backed Under | 52c | 37.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 123 | 64.2%79 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 44c | 34.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 48c | 32.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Over | 54c | 30.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Under | 48c | 29.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a8…b852backed Over | 50c | 25.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 57c | 25.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…81eabacked Under | 44c | 22.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 50c | 21.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb7…d873backed Over | 58c | 20.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…0af4backed Over | 50c | 20.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Spurs: O/U 243.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Spurs won
- Bulls vs. SpursSpurs won
- Bulls vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Bulls vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Spurs: O/U 244.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Spurs: O/U 245.5Under won
- Keldon Johnson: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Spurs (-18.5)Bulls won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.