TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Guardians vs. Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Guardiansof Guardians, Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$653,564
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$658,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $653,564 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x65e4…a3bdbacked Guardians48c366,264$174,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191,498.5810844.4%48 W · 60 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Astros52c99,492$51,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,765.3986751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Astros54c81,535$43,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,982.4618837.8%71 W · 117 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Astros52c66,739$34,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,704.041,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Astros53c38,680$20,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,306.7841850%209 W · 209 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Astros52c30,000$15,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,60048254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Astros41c17,415$7,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,137.379,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Astros52c17,266$8,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,978.297950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Astros50c12,000$6,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,000.8415745.2%71 W · 86 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Astros54c10,000$5,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,439.9938249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c32…99c0backed Astros61c9,996$6,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,097.220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b80…ad84backed Guardians39c9,995$3,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,096.942100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd59…c3a5backed Astros42c9,509$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00013450%67 W · 67 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b2c…284cbacked Astros54c9,325$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00028453.9%153 W · 131 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7225…293abacked Guardians50c7,881$3,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,970.184047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Guardians43c6,610$2,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,774.9898149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Astros56c6,094$3,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,435.4669249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b0…6815backed Astros50c6,049$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002437.5%9 W · 15 L-5.0wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-42.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Astros53c4,408$2,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,317.1566645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Guardians43c4,109$1,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,330.7526949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fba…bdbdbacked Astros26c3,884$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007548%36 W · 39 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Astros55c3,623$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001.795850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Guardians45c3,560$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9581,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Astros50c3,326$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.1233554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Astros53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59026453.8%142 W · 122 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Guardians45c2,932$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.721,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bc…e520backed Guardians43c2,500$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,42527953.4%149 W · 130 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf515…ff8cbacked Astros32c2,457$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.53933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x269e…47aebacked Guardians39c2,370$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick44cpaid+132.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda71…db66backed Astros17c2,303$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003865.8%25 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fd…df8fbacked Astros60c2,108$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03cd…9fdabacked Astros57c2,089$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.731346.6%146 W · 167 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd32…33c4backed Astros42c2,020$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.391421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.4wins-0.31per pick53cpaid-66%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Astros29c1,961$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.1396133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6189…1416backed Guardians40c1,900$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff0…4074backed Guardians40c1,900$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+74.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Astros36c1,897$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.6617927.9%50 W · 129 L-15.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-50.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x94a1…ec2fbacked Guardians44c1,807$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.1214048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa053…cf80backed Astros60c1,692$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-55.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Astros13c1,632$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.722,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Astros58c1,600$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.9851151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Astros54c1,580$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.216352.1%85 W · 78 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Astros52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7801,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Astros53c1,500$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79532042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Astros34c1,380$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.279740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x674d…def3backed Astros56c1,342$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.1714444.4%64 W · 80 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x881c…25fdbacked Astros61c1,311$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31db…79a4backed Astros21c1,142$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24115644.9%70 W · 86 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcedc…7351backed Guardians40c1,140$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.12862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf273…6116backed Astros60c1,140$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Guardians44c1,140$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.749245.7%42 W · 50 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Astros53c1,137$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.981,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf513…8297backed Guardians46c1,125$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.571968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Astros51c1,111$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.031,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Guardians40c1,103$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.995940.7%24 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians44c1,082$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.412,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Astros53c1,080$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.431145.7%142 W · 169 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bb7…45debacked Astros61c1,059$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Astros52c1,056$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.2432754.7%179 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcce…136abacked Astros54c1,019$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55029240.8%119 W · 173 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Guardians65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5681…cac8backed Astros58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5805042%21 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Guardians44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56037446.8%175 W · 199 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ad…d11dbacked Guardians39c999.99$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.9914050.7%71 W · 69 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc623…9afdbacked Astros58c862$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9613553.3%72 W · 63 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Guardians71c815.81$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.11,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Astros13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027213.6%37 W · 235 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b1…e2e8backed Guardians77c758.73$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.517853.8%42 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Guardians45c744.17$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.856660.6%40 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Astros56c700$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3921,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Astros60c699.98$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.4988549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca4…fde7backed Astros59c681.82$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4056450%32 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Guardians75c666.66$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6614966.4%99 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Astros38c660.67$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25024154.4%131 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Guardians38c657.36$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.279725.8%25 W · 72 L-11.2wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Guardians42c637.98$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.0173352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Astros55c631.64$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-81%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Astros53c625.83$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.5934164.2%219 W · 122 L+22.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Guardians40c621$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.61,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c10…35dcbacked Guardians44c617$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.52540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7284…49f7backed Astros55c598.96$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.431136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c1b…834cbacked Guardians45c589$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.95771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+57.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44c4…501bbacked Astros55c580.67$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.37955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8468…10c2backed Astros41c574.44$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.522941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Astros54c555$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.743654.8%239 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Astros58c537.93$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31218349.2%90 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Guardians42c522.3$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.5124248.8%118 W · 124 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcf…48e1backed Guardians49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25515642.9%67 W · 89 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Astros27c481$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.4465549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff24…76c1backed Astros55c439.98$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.999332.3%30 W · 63 L-16.8wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-36.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Astros51c438.68$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22517754.8%97 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Astros57c420$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Guardians39c400$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24444443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbc…a89cbacked Astros54c399.97$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.983836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Guardians42c392.48$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.551,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Astros52c391.77$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7221146.4%98 W · 113 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Guardians45c390.29$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.6643247.2%204 W · 228 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Guardians53c373.17$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.96,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Astros62c372.5$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.952259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf339…e010backed Astros54c372$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.886150.8%31 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.