TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Bucksof Bucks, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,374

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,887 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa0dc…586cbacked Thunder66c786.16$520 inLost-$52028838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Bucks32c781.25$250 inWon+$531.251353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+68.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Thunder79c633.3$500 inLost-$50012951.9%67 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Bucks21c586.61$123 inWon+$463.472,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e5b…073bbacked Thunder7c462.19$30 inLost-$30.11520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x564b…8348backed Thunder74c390.01$291 inLost-$290.52966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Thunder5c257.5$12 inLost-$11.956643.9%29 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe379…377cbacked Bucks25c200$50 inWon+$1501643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Bucks24c146.99$35 inWon+$111.9933730.3%102 W · 235 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8806…1df6backed Thunder69c144.96$100 inLost-$100.029549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder76c142.35$108 inLost-$108.193,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fc5…d36ebacked Bucks40c125.13$50 inWon+$75.135848.3%28 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Thunder78c103.19$80 inLost-$80.499552.6%50 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Thunder45c93.5$42 inLost-$42.081,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bucks22c90$20 inWon+$70.292753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Bucks22c77.69$17 inWon+$60.648343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Thunder47c77.68$36 inLost-$36.4916036.3%58 W · 102 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe63c…6832backed Bucks25c72$18 inWon+$54540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+97.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c00…741dbacked Bucks36c69.44$25 inWon+$44.444148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Thunder78c64.02$50 inLost-$49.9466646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bd7…e9f5backed Bucks25c64$16 inWon+$483644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Thunder55c63.55$35 inLost-$34.7940849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Thunder26c54.19$14 inLost-$13.9548740.7%198 W · 289 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.