TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bucksof Thunder, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$411,730
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$420,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $411,730 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b4d…e246backed Thunder46c120,853$55,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,242.3429650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b6…13acbacked Bucks55c100,000$55,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,0004742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder49c61,218$29,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,882.544,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Bucks51c40,000$20,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,599.9951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bucks51c33,933$17,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,627.41,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder47c33,855$15,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,935.522,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Bucks51c27,093$13,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,275.59053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Thunder49c23,391$11,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,461.8240350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Bucks54c20,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,20048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Bucks54c15,025$8,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,911.51,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Bucks50c14,000$7,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,9601,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Bucks51c11,777$6,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,770.9248845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder49c11,658$5,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,668.719,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Thunder48c9,502$4,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,560.796152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Thunder49c8,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,92017348.6%84 W · 89 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Bucks53c7,913$4,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,719.2170246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Bucks53c7,821$4,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,675.7524450%122 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5aa…1449backed Thunder49c6,753$3,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,278.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6549…44f2backed Bucks52c6,177$3,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,964.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Bucks51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,94021446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Thunder51c5,884$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bucks52c5,367$2,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,576.311,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Thunder46c5,190$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,402.422,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Bucks51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45018547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aba…4961backed Bucks51c5,000$2,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.227150.7%36 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Bucks51c4,700$2,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30441652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks52c3,578$1,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.394,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Thunder45c3,467$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.413,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks49c3,265$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,665.151,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3721…2d48backed Thunder48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Thunder47c2,837$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.332150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5ed…d25fbacked Bucks57c2,810$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.132680.8%21 W · 5 L+6.2wins+0.24per pick57cpaid+59.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Bucks54c2,778$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.771,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Thunder50c2,621$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.3837557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62c…2c44backed Bucks51c2,549$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.0211044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Thunder49c2,500$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.9648054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83f…3696backed Thunder48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks56c2,448$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.698,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bucks50c2,265$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.8482442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Bucks50c2,200$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10035744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked Bucks55c2,068$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92212251.6%63 W · 59 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e11…45ecbacked Thunder50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003060%18 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+38.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder49c1,723$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8402,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5092…fccdbacked Thunder50c1,307$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.1712843.8%56 W · 72 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88db…382cbacked Thunder49c1,224$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks51c1,100$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.423,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Bucks51c1,022$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.5750754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb2f…936abacked Thunder50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007150.7%36 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Thunder50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010650%53 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Thunder41c999$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.5948137.2%179 W · 302 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks52c996$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.085,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe01a…414fbacked Thunder52c950.73$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x695d…60d5backed Bucks53c943.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.44264.3%27 W · 15 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+27%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucks48c862.49$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.53,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Bucks52c800$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38467252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cca…6143backed Bucks51c800$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39241550.1%208 W · 207 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder45c741.13$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.516,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Thunder43c740.76$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.873,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Bucks53c699.28$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.6622055%121 W · 99 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7935…1f9abacked Thunder48c676.91$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Thunder50c646$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3238751.7%45 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Thunder26c623.19$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.3520536.6%75 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Bucks57c600$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.3191050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Bucks51c600$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.0889050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Bucks51c600$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.9250653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed Bucks59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20527435.4%97 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Bucks51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24595641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b0…ea3bbacked Bucks51c499.99$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24515154.3%82 W · 69 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Bucks51c495.94$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.0113954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Thunder49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20051451.9%267 W · 247 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Bucks52c403$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.4458951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c0…427bbacked Bucks55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18018446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Thunder49c398.47$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.2544352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Thunder49c393$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.571,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed Bucks51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.165532.7%18 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed Bucks67c352.6$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.766459.4%38 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Bucks49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15382440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Thunder49c294.5$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.342648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bd3…394cbacked Thunder50c285.87$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410048%48 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb42d…bd2dbacked Bucks52c284.15$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9827…6c61backed Bucks51c281.53$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.954158.5%24 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+13.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Thunder50c251$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.523845.4%108 W · 130 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Bucks54c250$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11595548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Bucks53c224.53$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.5356154.5%306 W · 255 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder47c224.53$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.534,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b2a…bc9bbacked Thunder47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004341.9%18 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc330…1667backed Thunder51c206.38$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.356253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4113…e904backed Thunder49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005048%24 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Thunder49c201.06$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.522,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…7be6backed Bucks53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947648.7%37 W · 39 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Thunder47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9452242.7%223 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Bucks51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9895260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48c8…72a4backed Bucks55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909443.6%41 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Bucks56c199.99$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8866645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48ee…0db4backed Bucks51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.084461.4%27 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+77.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Bucks49c192.96$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.715,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Thunder50c177.01$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.58251.2%42 W · 40 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Bucks57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4446346.4%215 W · 248 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Bucks55c160$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Bucks53c157.43$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9966646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.