TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cason Wallace: Points O/U 12.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,792
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,546

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,792 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b90…2194backed Yes52c10,295$5,396 inLost-$5,395.9519747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed No48c5,842$2,818 inWon+$3,023.661,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked No47c2,979$1,400 inWon+$1,578.7217454%94 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes53c1,999$1,054 inLost-$1,054.474131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked No47c1,900$894 inWon+$1,006.2595651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No44c1,000$440 inWon+$560.25,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Yes56c714.31$400 inLost-$40025347%119 W · 134 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No46c536.78$247 inWon+$290.232,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No47c440.43$207 inWon+$233.4371449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Yes55c249$137 inLost-$137.110457.7%60 W · 44 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed No46c217.39$100 inWon+$117.3940546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b2a…bc9bbacked No47c212.77$100 inWon+$112.774341.9%18 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed No47c127.66$60 inWon+$67.6652146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No42c90.93$39 inWon+$52.291,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5835…8745backed Yes56c89.29$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d21…277dbacked Yes56c56.25$32 inLost-$31.6620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc80c…6093backed Yes57c52.96$30 inLost-$30.191060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked No46c48$22 inWon+$25.929657.3%55 W · 41 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64e5…292fbacked No46c38$17 inWon+$20.523847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No47c31.07$15 inWon+$16.431,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed No49c25$12 inWon+$12.7553839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.