TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,409
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,453

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,409 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Over46c10,526$4,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,836.8854539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Under54c7,500$4,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,45051844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d48…2200backed Over48c7,177$3,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,445250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x164c…19c3backed Under52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9202100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked Over44c3,090$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.595547.3%26 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3183…c827backed Under52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4402100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Under55c2,304$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.6333945.1%153 W · 186 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd39…234fbacked Under51c2,033$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.171266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+34.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c26…69c2backed Over49c2,033$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.171457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Over51c2,019$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.425248.4%122 W · 130 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a4…00e1backed Under72c1,892$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under54c1,863$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.864,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over40c1,860$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.123,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c1,514$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.089,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under47c1,250$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.873,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under56c1,232$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.141,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Under47c885.11$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.1128838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4949…478ebacked Over51c784.31$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Under47c600.1$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.1420536.6%75 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81ea…8b9abacked Under55c599.98$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.9915650%78 W · 78 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over50c594.55$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.828,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79b0…ea3bbacked Under56c540$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.615154.3%82 W · 69 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over49c510.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25033150.8%168 W · 163 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under54c470.54$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.453,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb27f…2c41backed Under57c438.95$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.952657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfb7b…1476backed Over47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019145.5%87 W · 104 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1761,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Over15c380.22$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0315534.2%53 W · 102 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under53c376.06$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.364,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a52…06cbbacked Over60c333.21$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.814254.8%23 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under55c306$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.71,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Over42c227.27$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4512747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a5…9445backed Over45c222.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004540%18 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Over45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040344.4%179 W · 224 L-23.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Over49c199.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9923630.1%71 W · 165 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Under51c196.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.1869049.4%341 W · 349 L-30.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fb5…cabdbacked Under51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc29b…58d9backed Under52c177.08$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08f1…196ebacked Over45c155.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7016543.6%72 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Under47c145.92$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6239047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over44c142.43$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.174,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Over45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5033730.3%102 W · 235 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under57c105.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2634849.7%173 W · 175 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd80f…92febacked Over49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4955533.5%186 W · 369 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3f3…9b44backed Over43c97.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.12365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.2wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+63.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over55c95.6$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.543,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05aa…aca6backed Under56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffbc…b889backed Under47c82.63$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.388264.6%53 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8557…4e7abacked Under56c79.36$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9218957.1%108 W · 81 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Under52c77.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.521,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under55c75.09$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.051,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73c0…0afebacked Over56c75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under53c69.91$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7659141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over63c63.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4095452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…39debacked Under56c53.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.52650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Under48c51.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5740849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Under55c50.7$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7857657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca9…37d8backed Under60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203764.9%24 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a7…1493backed Over48c46.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.268127.2%22 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Over46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015347.1%72 W · 81 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ce…c202backed Over47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Under51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.621553.5%115 W · 100 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27e1…704bbacked Over52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c4a…4fb5backed Under57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.094346.5%20 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under50c34.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.123,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Over40c33.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2643246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under56c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0871245.8%326 W · 386 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea33…ae06backed Under57c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7611759.8%70 W · 47 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58c…3a5cbacked Over49c32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.682544%11 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20c7…bc23backed Over44c31.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under57c30.13$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.963,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over46c29.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3390357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eee…74e0backed Over46c26.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Under57c24.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.599349.5%46 W · 47 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aeb…42d4backed Over52c21.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1127539.6%109 W · 166 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Over48c21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1637949.3%187 W · 192 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd6…16abbacked Under55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910558.1%61 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7be4…b05cbacked Under51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.83268.8%22 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d01…16c7backed Under71c19.83$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.673100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9310…569fbacked Under56c19.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.649745.4%44 W · 53 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.