TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 18.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,545
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,545 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd529…f0d4backed No49c609.39$302 inWon+$307.791,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes51c215.69$110 inLost-$11039552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Yes50c177.48$89 inLost-$88.748251.2%42 W · 40 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02b1…c764backed No61c142.64$87 inWon+$55.634757.4%27 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Yes44c100$44 inLost-$441,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc918…f848backed No53c94.34$50 inWon+$44.343959%23 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0373…6d6bbacked Yes51c80$41 inLost-$40.646750.7%34 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf926…fb21backed Yes50c80$40 inLost-$39.92433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9a5…9445backed No61c57.36$35 inWon+$22.374540%18 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Yes51c43.27$22 inLost-$21.939657.3%55 W · 41 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No47c42.63$20 inWon+$22.775,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed No53c38.09$20 inWon+$1840849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd70…25ddbacked Yes54c37.04$20 inLost-$203354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e5…292fbacked Yes50c34.68$17 inLost-$17.343847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No45c30.98$14 inWon+$16.91,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No46c23.01$11 inWon+$12.421,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No50c20$10 inWon+$1060267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.