NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ea636f20f3cf205199d95a28f5a436171dad460c28bd6d833b2fbbab5998085
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe818…4bb3backed Under | 48c | 12,589$6,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,042.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 10,466$5,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,046.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…a9e6backed Under | 49c | 4,220$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,065.05 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 2,262$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.95 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7a…b88dbacked Over | 53c | 1,549$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 54c | 1,043$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.71 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 53c | 484$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.11 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 341.49$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Under | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 47c | 290.42$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…70a0backed Under | 73c | 272.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.5wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 61c | 210$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 17c | 172.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 46c | 147$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…04a9backed Over | 52c | 108.77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 40c | 99.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…78b3backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…937ebacked Under | 53c | 87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Over | 40c | 75.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Under | 60c | 74.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 66.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…6875backed Under | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 28c | 59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…9aa5backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5551…3d58backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5345…5437backed Under | 47c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Over | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca8…ddddbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Under | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Over | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 37c | 29.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Under | 62c | 28.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 52c | 26.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5this page
- Rockets vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.