NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8db5b68ba932800baa03d943c8dd948eb95a7630e3d2b08f06e36851bccbf96

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,088
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,088 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x18a4…1a5dbacked Under	46c	10,000$4,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,600	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c20…7d4fbacked Over	54c	8,000$4,320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,680	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+10%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x414b…73bcbacked Over	54c	5,222$2,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,421.7	147	53.1%78 W · 69 L	+8.6wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Under	49c	5,154$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Over	58c	3,448$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,448.28	274	43.1%118 W · 156 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	45c	3,429$1,532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,532.05	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9315…a744backed Over	54c	2,000$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$920	67	67.2%45 W · 22 L	+10.7wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over	37c	1,699$626 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,072.97	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd65d…a9e6backed Under	47c	1,196$562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.11	73	47.9%35 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Under	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa99f…9c1ebacked Under	3c	920$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.6	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67c3…5cc8backed Over	55c	727.27$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.27	111	55%61 W · 50 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	50c	574.72$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.61	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Under	55c	500$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	126	55.6%70 W · 56 L	-8.1wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Under	22c	426.92$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.03	221	40.7%90 W · 131 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Under	31c	401.61$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.61	311	44.4%138 W · 173 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4455…98e5backed Over	55c	400$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2128…4c6dbacked Under	45c	332.92$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.86	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-26%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4441…3551backed Over	52c	300$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	22	77.3%17 W · 5 L	+3.3wins	+0.15per pick	62cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3908…20eabacked Under	42c	300$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43fc…51c6backed Over	77c	300$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.8wins	-0.28per pick	58cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Under	10c	295$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	390	18.2%71 W · 319 L	+27.6wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+62.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	45c	283.25$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.95	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	48c	264.89$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.74	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under	80c	254$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.5	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over	54c	250$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over	59c	249.88$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.45	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	55c	207.02$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.86	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Over	11c	200$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178	92	35.9%33 W · 59 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe832…7abbbacked Under	51c	196.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	54	55.6%30 W · 24 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa75d…1d45backed Over	55c	190.91$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.91	223	47.1%105 W · 118 L	-9.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	49c	187.94$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.67	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50aa…70ddbacked Over	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	87	60.9%53 W · 34 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	44c	166.36$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.87	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffb2…3bb5backed Over	61c	159.02$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.02	48	60.4%29 W · 19 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Under	43c	121.81$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.13	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Over	62c	120$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.6	701	53.5%375 W · 326 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	31c	119$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.51	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6f…296abacked Over	45c	112.24$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.24	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	-6.3wins	-0.14per pick	65cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	61c	100$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over	42c	100$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Over	64c	100$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Under	67c	99.99$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.74	166	69.9%116 W · 50 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Over	53c	96.54$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.66	164	47.6%78 W · 86 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93a7…8db6backed Under	16c	83.34$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Over	61c	81.97$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.97	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-3.4wins	-0.22per pick	56cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under	27c	78.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.55	1,113	41.6%463 W · 650 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a1…e6f5backed Under	39c	71$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.69	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fb4cbacked Over	57c	70.18$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.18	102	57.8%59 W · 43 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Over	63c	70$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.9	612	53.1%325 W · 287 L	-20.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8901…e16bbacked Over	57c	69.97$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.31	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e6…224cbacked Under	45c	66.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a52…9ad6backed Over	61c	65.32$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.32	28	64.3%18 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked Under	40c	64$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cdb…7a7abacked Under	40c	63$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	47c	62.16$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.19	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa14…f533backed Over	52c	60$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.8	47	53.2%25 W · 22 L	+4.4wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Over	56c	51.91$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.84	207	62.3%129 W · 78 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Under	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	487	40.7%198 W · 289 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Over	64c	50$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.2	353	52.4%185 W · 168 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29bd…80c9backed Over	57c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	186	49.5%92 W · 94 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	44c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.14	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under	43c	48.84$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9244…d493backed Under	43c	46.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.21per pick	59cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a49…f879backed Over	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5899…032dbacked Under	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ee…5c69backed Under	51c	39.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-11.2wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under	47c	39$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.33	339	49.9%169 W · 170 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9f6…9cdabacked Over	60c	36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	35	65.7%23 W · 12 L	+4.5wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Over	35c	34.5$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.48	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under	51c	33.5$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Over	60c	33.47$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.47	183	47.5%87 W · 96 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x334f…0d32backed Over	53c	33$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.51	136	52.2%71 W · 65 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ca8…ddddbacked Over	60c	31.22$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.49	278	46.8%130 W · 148 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Over	61c	29$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.31	294	58.5%172 W · 122 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	60c	29$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.6	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8b9…7b8dbacked Over	57c	26.33$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.33	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	61c	26.19$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.19	415	56.9%236 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Over	61c	24$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.36	446	48%214 W · 232 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe98b…d3bebacked Over	59c	23.58$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.58	115	53%61 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2643…28c2backed Under	47c	23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Over	57c	22$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.46	336	50.6%170 W · 166 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1315…d32ebacked Over	61c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.19	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x859a…1ccebacked Over	60c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	29	72.4%21 W · 8 L	+6.0wins	+0.21per pick	52cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8ca2…2635backed Over	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	28	75%21 W · 7 L	+4.4wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8402…76cabacked Over	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+32.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe166…edcebacked Over	61c	17$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.63	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	55cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5this page
Rockets vs. NuggetsNuggets won
Rockets vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
Rockets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Nuggets won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event