Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4edb0ef9df1345e94ed926381ff89b6f83c968d0f84a4e49f2485c8b48bf45f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 34c | 581.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.19 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 381.26$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.14 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 343.2$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 246.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 18c | 242.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 219.03$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 61c | 164.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 58c | 154.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 135$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 32c | 128.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.71 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 50c | 126.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 52c | 114$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 108.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 105$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 68c | 100.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 40c | 100.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 38c | 99.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 98.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 52c | 96.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 94.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 88.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 85.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 49c | 81.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 78c | 81.25$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 49c | 80.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 51c | 78.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 56c | 77.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 76.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 59c | 75.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 48c | 62.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 57c | 61.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 39c | 58.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 55c | 55.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 52.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 57c | 45.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 45.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 43.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 49c | 43.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 49c | 43.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 41.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 58c | 39.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 39.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 46c | 35.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 33.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 32.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 49c | 30.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 55c | 30.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 53c | 28.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 48c | 28.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 45c | 27.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 45c | 26.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 49c | 26.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 49c | 23.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 44c | 23.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 59c | 23.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…4dbfbacked No | 49c | 22.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 60c | 20.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 61c | 20.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 51c | 20.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…64d0backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…d5d9backed Yes | 74c | 18.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes | 64c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 76c | 15.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.