TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,697
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,663

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,697 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8383…cb59backed No34c581.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1949543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No48c381.26$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.142,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes46c343.2$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.1110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No37c246.49$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.34,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No18c242.93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4995852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No50c219.03$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.154,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…395bbacked Yes61c164.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8833628.9%97 W · 239 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes58c154.54$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5464446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No48c135$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.73,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes32c128.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes50c126.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes52c114$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7286949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No53c108.53$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.524,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No52c105$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.054,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes68c100.51$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6417649.4%87 W · 89 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes40c100.31$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8431062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No38c99.1$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6647136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No51c98.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.483459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0419252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed Yes52c96.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5825747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes54c94.6$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.632,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes43c88.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.11,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes47c85.91$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.256,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes49c81.78$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7816836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x532b…ccccbacked Yes78c81.25$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.678176.5%62 W · 19 L+11.7wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+29.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes49c80.22$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9181558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes53c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4046148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No51c78.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8521338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked No56c77.23$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1241966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No50c76.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.411,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes59c75.08$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.657747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes48c62.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.142,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…8834backed No57c61.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3512547.2%59 W · 66 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c59$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.095,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed No39c58.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2321052.4%110 W · 100 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes55c55.5$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.916,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No35c52.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.31,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes57c45.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.617368.5%50 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes51c45.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.279,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No47c43.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.672,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No49c43.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.21,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes49c43.55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.217945.6%36 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No51c41.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.137,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes58c39.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.442,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No44c39.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.343,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No47c38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.888060%48 W · 32 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bf3…369dbacked No46c35.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.333959%23 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No54c33.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No48c32.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.944,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.354656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43eb…3d85backed No49c30.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.126046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No55c30.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8827852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.91,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9742…e412backed No68c29.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick29cpaid+5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes53c28.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1852446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes48c28.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6115527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes45c27.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.157255.6%40 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes60c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.91,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked No53c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.415749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes45c26.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4225342.3%107 W · 146 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No49c26.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.921,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d17…32d8backed No52c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9613655.1%75 W · 61 L-13.4wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-17.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes49c23.55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.015736.8%21 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No44c23.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4149359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No59c23.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7476059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97a5…4dbfbacked No49c22.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.982650%13 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes60c20.66$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2237465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No61c20.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.625877.5%200 W · 58 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb80c…827bbacked No51c20.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1427754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0dc…64d0backed Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51090%9 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick74cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1180962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe828…ae41backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.89027.8%25 W · 65 L-10.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-34.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked No55c19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4581855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45c3…d5d9backed Yes74c18.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.872142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes64c17.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.172548%12 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes76c15.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.892,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.