Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c565b8691b7b6372e83127218df59ebfeb5700aa29746efacdf2f697256bb57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 1,125$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 40c | 576.72$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.53 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 529.67$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 375.28$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.44 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 29c | 371.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 46c | 324.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 49c | 214$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 174$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 170$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 161.15$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 146.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 46c | 136.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 73c | 136.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 135.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…00a0backed Yes | 41c | 134.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 59c | 132.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 35c | 130.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 53c | 129.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 120.87$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 108.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 58c | 103.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 95.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 94.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 72c | 93.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 39c | 91.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 65c | 90.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 42c | 87.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 72c | 87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 53c | 83.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 49c | 77.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 60c | 75.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…1c76backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed Yes | 36c | 64.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 27c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 50.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 46.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 37c | 44.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 42.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 40.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 37.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 49c | 34.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 72c | 33.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 40c | 27.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 59c | 27.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 26.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50a…132dbacked Yes | 53c | 24.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 45c | 23.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 45c | 23.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 20.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.