NBA · resolved market
Spread: 76ers (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f46f49350334d795f7ba61311dd3f3f3e2fd0c67c6fe25c5ed3038a783c50d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 76ersof 76ers, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7258…b1dbbacked Pelicans | 52c | 8,100$4,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,212 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…00f6backed 76ers | 48c | 8,100$3,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,212 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Pelicans | 27c | 3,221$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.6 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed 76ers | 65c | 2,567$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.87 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked 76ers | 41c | 2,125$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.75 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Pelicans | 53c | 1,870$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.27 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 57c | 1,469$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed 76ers | 48c | 776.31$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.22 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked 76ers | 40c | 686$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.35 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed 76ers | 45c | 657.63$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.63 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed 76ers | 52c | 637.36$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.37 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 53c | 624.39$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.27 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Pelicans | 58c | 487.87$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.16 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Pelicans | 47c | 465.38$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.73 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed 76ers | 54c | 399.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.99 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked 76ers | 67c | 393.41$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.11 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked 76ers | 53c | 385.01$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.95 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed 76ers | 42c | 348.24$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.98 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Pelicans | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 208 | 43.8%91 W · 117 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Pelicans | 52c | 258.27$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.3 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked 76ers | 32c | 255$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.45 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed 76ers | 48c | 237.64$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.57 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Pelicans | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…50d9backed 76ers | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed 76ers | 49c | 172$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed 76ers | 36c | 143.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pelicans | 58c | 138.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed 76ers | 45c | 136.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed 76ers | 39c | 135.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed Pelicans | 46c | 133.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 305 | 44.6%136 W · 169 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed 76ers | 47c | 133.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Pelicans | 54c | 129.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed 76ers | 45c | 109.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed 76ers | 72c | 103.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed 76ers | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Pelicans | 61c | 98.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Pelicans | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…e4dabacked Pelicans | 28c | 84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 76ers | 48c | 76.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Pelicans | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 76ers | 48c | 70.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Pelicans | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed 76ers | 38c | 69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Pelicans | 46c | 63.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…765cbacked 76ers | 71c | 54.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed 76ers | 46c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed 76ers | 38c | 50.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Pelicans | 55c | 50.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed 76ers | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked 76ers | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed 76ers | 50c | 43.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Pelicans | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c8…2f5abacked 76ers | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Pelicans | 62c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Pelicans | 55c | 36.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed 76ers | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 367 | 51.5%189 W · 178 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…d0f5backed Pelicans | 47c | 29.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a9…c0a7backed 76ers | 44c | 25.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans | 52c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed 76ers | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac2…bb88backed Pelicans | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Pelicans | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked 76ers | 55c | 18.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 76ers (-9.5)this page
- Joel Embiid: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Paul George: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Pelicans vs. 76ers76ers won
- Pelicans vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline76ers won
- Pelicans vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. 76ers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. 76ers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. 76ers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: 76ers (-10.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: 76ers (-6.5)76ers won
- Spread: 76ers (-7.5)76ers won
- Spread: 76ers (-8.5)76ers won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Zion Williamson: Points O/U 21.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.