TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Miami Open: Marin Cilic vs Alexander Zverev

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alexander Zverevof Marin Cilic, Alexander Zverev
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$774,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $774,470 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21f3…35e3backed Marin Cilic15c70,298$10,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,542.3978536.1%283 W · 502 L+36.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Marin Cilic16c52,669$8,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,480.482245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82e2…ec75backed Marin Cilic0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe63e…525abacked Marin Cilic5c39,777$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9822313%3 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Marin Cilic14c29,328$4,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,146.5656757.1%324 W · 243 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Marin Cilic13c18,078$2,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,413.111,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb7b…ed88backed Marin Cilic10c16,044$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.43944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Marin Cilic7c14,661$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.5940748.9%199 W · 208 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Marin Cilic13c13,097$1,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.31,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Marin Cilic14c10,359$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.2412231.1%38 W · 84 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Marin Cilic6c9,590$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.078031.3%25 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Marin Cilic4c7,944$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.151,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Marin Cilic7c7,579$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.952,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Marin Cilic14c6,775$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.5648552.8%256 W · 229 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27c5…6d61backed Marin Cilic6c6,642$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3866235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf92a…99acbacked Marin Cilic23c5,409$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.644930.6%15 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae5…ead2backed Marin Cilic7c5,193$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3504245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f35…95dabacked Marin Cilic20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00045343.9%199 W · 254 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Marin Cilic14c4,872$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.032,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc155…dc0fbacked Marin Cilic6c4,630$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006336.5%23 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-34.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3a8…06d9backed Marin Cilic14c4,408$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Marin Cilic12c4,174$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.8628338.9%110 W · 173 L+0.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Marin Cilic0c4,009$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013826.1%36 W · 102 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Marin Cilic14c3,738$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.7113135.9%47 W · 84 L+0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Marin Cilic15c3,627$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5448060%48 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a73…e1adbacked Marin Cilic14c3,609$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015826.6%42 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Marin Cilic13c3,500$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.23330.3%10 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Marin Cilic15c3,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9527944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Marin Cilic3c3,238$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4965157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Marin Cilic15c3,238$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.917,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Marin Cilic6c3,075$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.0946553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Marin Cilic14c2,933$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.198,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Marin Cilic9c2,908$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.228835.1%101 W · 187 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Marin Cilic5c2,665$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1239737.9%77 W · 896 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8374…4015backed Marin Cilic24c2,067$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5047346.6%34 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Marin Cilic8c2,035$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.4244229.6%131 W · 311 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Marin Cilic14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28046649.8%232 W · 234 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f95…b08bbacked Marin Cilic16c2,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31011045.5%50 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa179…60cebacked Marin Cilic16c1,844$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2951827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-50.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Marin Cilic15c1,787$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.851,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Marin Cilic6c1,773$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,02650%513 W · 513 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc5…c988backed Marin Cilic14c1,698$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.741566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Marin Cilic5c1,533$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1428724.4%70 W · 217 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2274…988ebacked Marin Cilic10c1,528$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.832040%8 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa10e…4ea1backed Marin Cilic7c1,525$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008331.3%26 W · 57 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Marin Cilic15c1,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22565849.4%325 W · 333 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Marin Cilic14c1,480$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.4466139.3%260 W · 401 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Marin Cilic7c1,479$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10042743.8%187 W · 240 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…abffbacked Marin Cilic7c1,475$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006921.7%15 W · 54 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-46.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Marin Cilic12c1,406$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17537444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Marin Cilic14c1,392$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9997141.4%402 W · 569 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd473…84e4backed Marin Cilic4c1,351$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50387.9%3 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Marin Cilic13c1,277$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.913,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Marin Cilic12c1,202$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.017,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Marin Cilic14c1,196$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.52317.4%4 W · 19 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-57.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xb6cb…4a0cbacked Marin Cilic17c1,176$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Marin Cilic14c1,071$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b4…3111backed Marin Cilic14c1,012$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.685250%26 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Marin Cilic4c1,009$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.281,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Marin Cilic12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12072452.6%381 W · 343 L+34.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Marin Cilic2c955.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.242550.8%2 W · 253 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Marin Cilic21c915.97$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.5950731.2%158 W · 349 L-41.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Marin Cilic6c892.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5081933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Marin Cilic19c888$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.7437342.6%159 W · 214 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Alexander Zverev75c886.9$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.538739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Marin Cilic15c881.32$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.431,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb26…20debacked Marin Cilic6c851.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Marin Cilic12c850$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10213444%59 W · 75 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Marin Cilic15c797.4$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6124448.8%119 W · 125 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Marin Cilic19c781$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.599044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Marin Cilic4c712.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.22934.3%4 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5281…be82backed Marin Cilic6c712$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3513…b52fbacked Marin Cilic3c701.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.05140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Marin Cilic4c691.36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.784422.7%10 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-30.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Marin Cilic24c625.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15037854%204 W · 174 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ba…c285backed Marin Cilic3c618.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7917…d600backed Marin Cilic8c611.31$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96cb…75cbbacked Marin Cilic4c600$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.811426.3%30 W · 84 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+1.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc3…0670backed Marin Cilic17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048144.5%214 W · 267 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Marin Cilic6c580$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.87,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Marin Cilic12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x714d…6e05backed Alexander Zverev78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1106446.9%30 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa244…ab21backed Marin Cilic10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Marin Cilic3c500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.74599.6%44 W · 415 L+1.9wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Marin Cilic15c498.84$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.051,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b0…f879backed Marin Cilic20c491.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007943%34 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff4…b609backed Alexander Zverev80c485.06$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0114954.4%81 W · 68 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Marin Cilic15c484$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8420336%73 W · 130 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39c5…5a2fbacked Marin Cilic18c458.8$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.915759.6%34 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Marin Cilic15c451$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.651,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Marin Cilic15c434.04$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.291,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Marin Cilic3c402.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.27575.3%3 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x582d…c221backed Marin Cilic14c400$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.831330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb315…d6c9backed Marin Cilic13c399.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5215324.8%38 W · 115 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbebf…9baebacked Marin Cilic10c391.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4090854.5%495 W · 413 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed Alexander Zverev78c384.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.626256.5%35 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee05…1761backed Marin Cilic8c360.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.781216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-64.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Marin Cilic14c349.06$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.692,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Marin Cilic15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5028541.1%117 W · 168 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd35d…a329backed Marin Cilic6c313.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.