Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $120 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f936b04094a5880eb8dd2e56e6cc90a531cba37412c4768c4626650f512d95e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $221,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $262,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd69b…1ed8backed No | 75c | 28,975$21,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,138.03 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +6.4wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +110%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45af…9158backed Yes | 20c | 23,099$4,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,628.46 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 79c | 11,376$9,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,361.13 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…bd0abacked Yes | 24c | 10,909$2,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,648.89 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 10c | 4,894$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.46 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes | 37c | 4,048$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,310$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61b…31dfbacked No | 79c | 2,917$2,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf323…c700backed Yes | 6c | 1,878$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,703$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,336$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,200$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked No | 64c | 1,200$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes | 21c | 1,141$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.14 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c3…4feebacked Yes | 10c | 990.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9af…05adbacked Yes | 35c | 900$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 11c | 750$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 14c | 744.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 26c | 635.79$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.19 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…d3f6backed Yes | 11c | 601.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 71c | 538.11$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.19 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ff…7977backed Yes | 18c | 489.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 15c | 283.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…c11dbacked Yes | 21c | 278.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 273.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 216.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 17c | 156.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked No | 64c | 155$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…92f5backed No | 68c | 146.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…232abacked Yes | 36c | 91.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…83ccbacked Yes | 40c | 76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f9…8b7ebacked Yes | 36c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1b…b565backed Yes | 39c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd052…bdc1backed No | 66c | 53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +132%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…a98dbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…da7fbacked No | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f27…a98cbacked No | 63c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…eaa9backed No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…d74ebacked No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…1c7ebacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60f…eaabbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1282…519abacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $120 in May?this page
- Will Solana dip to $100 in May?No won
- Will Solana dip to $110 in May?No won
- Will Solana dip to $130 in May?No won
- Will Solana dip to $140 in May?No won
- Will Solana dip to $80 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $150 in May?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $170 in May?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $190 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $210 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $250 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $300 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.