Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $110 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3848c41feea3529325465610f93a2acf638b5e5caffdb43a579a8e9d0b5dbf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $231,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45af…9158backed Yes | 15c | 19,999$2,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,946.8 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…7728backed Yes | 6c | 17,971$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 9,165$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…bd0abacked Yes | 11c | 7,236$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.07 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 4c | 3,206$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.9 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -92.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes | 23c | 3,106$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.9 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 7c | 2,700$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.01 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,521$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9af…05adbacked Yes | 20c | 2,000$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf323…c700backed Yes | 4c | 1,713$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,371$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20e…7d58backed Yes | 18c | 1,329$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,100$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…d3f6backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes | 16c | 948.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.21 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked No | 80c | 888$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 78c | 575$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9049…de85backed Yes | 20c | 528.91$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…c11dbacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f2…8e90backed Yes | 5c | 223$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 20c | 72.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 19c | 56.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf30…f368backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $110 in May?this page
- Will Solana dip to $100 in May?No won
- Will Solana dip to $120 in May?No won
- Will Solana dip to $130 in May?No won
- Will Solana dip to $140 in May?No won
- Will Solana dip to $80 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $150 in May?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $170 in May?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $190 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $210 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $250 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $300 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.