NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Heat: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5084675f760591dcd310b3066a0aebffae820540b279c49acadf6285298cfa0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,678 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43b6…9a9bbacked Under | 46c | 3,060$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.48 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…9282backed Under | 48c | 2,798$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe560…a638backed Over | 52c | 2,404$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c85…6598backed Under | 48c | 2,315$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…17aabacked Over | 52c | 2,214$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6e…229abacked Over | 52c | 2,131$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 2,044$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d7…7339backed Under | 48c | 2,044$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95d…fb9bbacked Over | 52c | 1,988$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Over | 54c | 1,983$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.11 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…a09bbacked Over | 54c | 1,880$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe78d…d091backed Over | 52c | 1,855$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa762…1912backed Under | 48c | 1,806$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…94f6backed Under | 48c | 1,722$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe82c…14fdbacked Over | 52c | 1,717$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73bc…db1fbacked Under | 48c | 1,663$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 47c | 1,058$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.26 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 286 | 16.4%47 W · 239 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 739.27$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.01 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 54c | 669.54$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.73 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Over | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 47c | 434.47$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.93 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 50c | 375.4$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.84 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 54c | 275.11$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.55 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 274.53$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 48c | 223.39$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.05 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74c…dfb2backed Over | 52c | 202$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 48c | 198.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…f6dcbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c773backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…c477backed Under | 48c | 177$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 46c | 174.54$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7682…6ec1backed Over | 52c | 166$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c3…77a7backed Under | 48c | 152$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 52c | 149.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed Over | 55c | 136.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…c739backed Under | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Over | 59c | 107.57$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 232 | 49.6%115 W · 117 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d82…e16abacked Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 54c | 101.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4694…b6b2backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 92.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 52c | 76.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…f12abacked Over | 53c | 71.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…091cbacked Under | 48c | 71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…4c18backed Under | 49c | 61.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 55c | 56.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…da99backed Over | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d38…71efbacked Under | 48c | 41.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 73c | 41.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 46c | 41.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Over | 67c | 40.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 51c | 36.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 47c | 36.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Over | 54c | 34.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Over | 40c | 33.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 47c | 32.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 31.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked Under | 48c | 28.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 54c | 27.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Over | 54c | 26.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 24.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 327 | 52.9%173 W · 154 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Over | 50c | 21.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 97 | 60.8%59 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-1.5)Magic won
- 1H Spread: Heat (-2.5)Magic won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jett Howard: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Jevon Carter: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Magic vs. HeatMagic won
- Magic vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Heat: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Magic won
- Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.